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Gold Fundamental Analysis January 1, 2013, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold regain some of yesterday’s losses to trade at 1658.65 but remains directionless dipping up and down at market whims.

Gold Fundamental Analysis January 1, 2013, Forecast

Gold Fundamental Analysis January 1, 2013, Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis January 1, 2013, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold regain some of yesterday’s losses to trade at 1658.65 but remains directionless dipping up and down at market whims. Most traders are sidelined as usual during the holiday season, but many have also sold profitable positions to book profits before year end with unknown tax consequences next year, traders are uneasy about remaining in the markets or taking new positions. The gold price turned modestly higher on Friday as financial markets continued to be whipsawed by a myriad of developments regarding the looming U.S. fiscal cliff.  The spot price of gold held in a very narrow range. As for the ongoing fiscal cliff saga, the latest development included a planned meeting at between President Barack Obama and Congressional leaders.  There, policymakers are expected to make a last-ditch effort to come to some sort of an agreement over higher tax rates for wealthier Americans.  However, the definition of wealthy continues to vary substantially between Republicans and Democrats, and this has become one of the most significant obstacles to avoiding the fiscal cliff. While politicians in Washington remain divided on many critical financial issues, two encouraging economic data points helped pressure the price of gold. 

Traders seem to be moving toward the safety of the US dollar and ignoring gold as a safety net during this cycle

Our fundamental analysis will not be published tomorrow, as we celebrated the New Year’s holiday and global markets are shuttered. I would like to take this time to wish all of my readers and followers the best in the New Year… Here’s to profitable trading.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 31

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

01:45

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

51.50

 

50.90 

 

50.90 

 

 

 

02:00

 

SGD

 

 

 

Singaporean Bank Landing (MoM) 

481.70B

 

 

 

479.40B 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Housing Equity Withdrawal (QoQ) 

-8.0B

 

-9.1B 

 

-9.4B 

   

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Greek Retail Sales (YoY) 

-18.10%

 

 

 

-11.80% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Jan. 01

01:00

CNY

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

51.00 

50.60 

Jan. 02

00:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.7% 

-0.1% 

 

00:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9% 

1.9% 

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.38 

1.50 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.2 

49.5 

 Jan. 03

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.35 

1.50 

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

48.5 

48.5 

 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

10K 

5K 

Upcoming Government Bond

Date Time Country 

Thursday, January 5: France will auction an estimated €7-8 billion ($9.1-10.4 billion) in 10-year and other long-term bonds 

Tuesday, January 10: Austria will auction €1.3 billion ($1.7 billion) in 5- and 10-year bonds

Thursday, January 12: Spanish 3- and 5-year bond auction

Friday, January 13: Italy will auction medium-long term bonds

Thursday, January 19: France will auction 5-year bonds

Thursday, January 19: Spanish 10-, 15-, and 30-year bond auction

Thursday, January 26: Italian long-term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Italian medium-long term bond auction

Monday, January 30: Belgian bond auction

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