Gold Fundamental Analysis June21, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold has surprised markets today, by falling to 1606.85 before the Fed releases. Gold was expected to trade sideways today, while investors waited for news from the Feds on monetary easing. Usually additional monetary easing is a negative for the USD and positive for gold. Both are weak in today’s trading.

Investors moved back into the markets, in a risk on attitude, as news from Greece stated that the New Democracy was able to form an acceptable government and has so informed the Spanish President. The problem facing them now, is that of Finance Minister, most of the favored candidates have declined the position. With Greece now firmly tucked away, investors moved into other riskier assets deflating gold.

Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.  

These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 20, 2012 actual. v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 21  08:30  Spain

Jun 21  08:50  France

Jun 21  09:30  UK

Jun 21  09:50  France

Jun 21  15:00  US

Jun 21  17:00  US

Jun 22  15:30  Italy

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

Jun 26  08:30  Holland

Jun 26  08:30  Spain

Jun 26  09:10  Italy

Jun 26  09:30  UK

Jun 26  14:30  UK

Jun 26  17:00  US