Advertisement
Advertisement
Gold Fundamental Analysis May 16, 2013 Forecast
By:
Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued its decline falling 15 dollar at this writing to trade at 1409.45 ahead of US data due later today. Gold hit
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold continued its decline falling 15 dollar at this writing to trade at 1409.45 ahead of US data due later today. Gold hit a three-week low today, stretching its losses into a fifth straight session, as the euro weakened on disappointing European growth numbers and firm equities lured away investors.
Gold had risen earlier in the day as outflows from exchange-traded funds halted, but reversed direction after the euro slid to a six-week low against the dollar on data showing Germany grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.1 percent in the first quarter and France slipped into recession.
Bullion’s safe-haven appeal has also been dented by U.S. equities at record highs, signs of an improving U.S. economy and fears of a slowdown in demand from top consumer India.
As the US dollar climbed on strong data reports and the theory that the Fed will reduce its monthly asset purchases weighs heavily on precious metals. The holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed ETF, were unchanged at 33.8 million ounces on Monday, after having fallen almost daily.
But the holdings were still within sight of their lowest level since March 2009, hit this month after funds cut exposure to bullion following its historic April fall.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data May 15, 2013 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
May 15 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
|
|
|
3.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-1.3% |
|
-0.6% |
|
1.2% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Wage Price Index (QoQ) |
0.7% |
|
0.8% |
|
0.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.2% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (YoY) |
-1.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
0.4% |
|
0.7% |
|
1.0% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Claimant Count Change |
-7.3K |
|
-3.0K |
|
-9.9K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
BoE Inflation Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
|
|
0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
|
|
1.00% |
|
2.60% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
|
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
|
|
4.0 |
|
3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
|
|
0.8% |
|
1.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
|
|
1.7% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
|
|
43.4B |
|
-17.8B |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
|
|
-0.2% |
|
0.4% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 16 |
07:45 |
EUR |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
1.0% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.945M |
0.907M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.973M |
1.036M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
330K |
323K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
3000K |
3005K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
2.4 |
1.3 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
May 16 05:35 Japan
May 16 05:45 Japan
May 16 10:50 France
May 16 11:30 UK
May 16 11:50 France
May 17 12:00 Belgium
May 17 12:10 UK
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Advertisement