Gold Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold gave up $3.40 to trade at 1221.90 after touching 1230 yesterday. Gold reached a two-week high yesterday, rebounding

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 13, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold gave up $3.40 to trade at 1221.90 after touching 1230 yesterday. Gold reached a two-week high yesterday, rebounding from this year’s low set Oct. 6, after Fed minutes showed some policy makers were concerned about economic growth. An improving economy this year had added to the case for less U.S. stimulus. Rising interest rates reduce gold’s allure because the metal generally only offers investors returns through price gains, while a stronger dollar typically cuts demand for a store of value.

Money managers have cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, to the lowest this year, U.S. government data show. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products are at a five-year low.

Gold prices eased off its longest rally since June amid easing concern that the Federal Reserve is close to raising interest rates, reviving demand for the metal as an inflation hedge.

More than $1.2 billion has been added to the value of exchange-traded products backed by bullion this week as prices rebounded. The 30-day historical volatility for futures traded in New York climbed yesterday to the highest in more than a month.

Gold on Monday reached the lowest price this year as signs of an improving American labor market spurred bets that the Fed was moving closer to increasing borrowing costs. Minutes released Wednesday from the central bank’s September meeting showed policymakers identified slowing global growth and a stronger currency as potential risks to the U.S. outlook.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY		Monetary Minutes
JPY		Tertiary Industry Activity	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%
AUD		Home Loans (MoM)	-0.9%	0.1%	0.3%
GBP		Trade Balance (Aug)	-9.10B	-9.60B	-10.41B
GBP		Trade Balance Non-EU	-3.59B	-4.00B	-4.76B
USD		Export Price Index		-0.1%	-0.5%
USD		Import Price Index		-0.7%	-0.9%
CAD		Unemployment Rate		7.0%	7.0%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Holiday	Japan – Health-Sports Day
	Holiday	Canada – Thanksgiving Day
NZD		FPI (MoM) (Sep)			0.3%
CNY		Exports (YoY) (Sep)			9.4%
CNY		Imports (YoY) (Sep)			-2.4%
CNY		Trade Balance (Sep)			49.83B