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Barry Norman
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Gold

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 14, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold added $6.80 to reach 1228.50 as traders looked closer at the possibility of the Fed’s pushing interest rate increases farther into the future as the eurozone weighs heavily on the global recovery. Gold climbed to the highest in almost four weeks as concern that global growth is slowing stoked bets the U.S. Federal Reserve may push back interest-rate increases, sending the dollar lower and boosting demand for a protection of wealth. This was besides a firming trend overseas where gold climbed to nearly four-week high as dollar weakened on signs that the US Federal Reserve may push back interest rate hike, boosting demand for a safe-haven, traders said.

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“It would appear that the global risk aversion is the only friend to gold and that is reflected in a slightly lower dollar and the fall in equity markets, but the big barrier for gold is oil, which is continuing to ease, meaning that inflation expectations are falling,” Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. The metal has rebounded 4% from a 15-month low of $1,183.46 hit last week after strong US jobs data fuelled talk that US interest rates could rise sooner rather than later.

But dovish-leaning minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting prompted the market to push back the expected timing of an interest rate hike. Gold’s gains were helped by a lower dollar after Fed officials warned at the weekend that if the global recovery stumbled, it could delay an increase in US interest rates. A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, and negative for the dollar.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Holiday

Japan – Health-Sports Day

 

 

Holiday

Canada – Thanksgiving Day

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Sep)

15.3%

11.8%

9.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Sep)

7.0%

-2.7%

-2.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

31.00B

41.00B

49.83B

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

RBA Asst Gov. Debelle

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

New Loans

 

750B

703B

 

 

  EUR

French CPI

 

-0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

French HICP

 

-0.3%

0.5%

 

 

  EUR

Spanish CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.4%

1.5%

 

 

  GBP

PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.4%

-0.6%

 

 

  EUR

Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.3%

-0.3%

 

 

  EUR

Industrial Production

 

-1.6%

1.0%

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

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