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Barry Norman
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Gold Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to climb as traders moved to safe haven risk off mode, as economic data around the world began to become worrisome. Australian, Japanese and eurozone data along with the UK seem to point to a shift from recovery mode. Gold added $3.70 today to trade at 1233.70. Gold retained overnight gains on Tuesday to trade near its highest in four weeks as investor appetite for riskier assets eased amid global growth worries, while a softer dollar also underpinned prices of the metal.

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A sell-off in the stock markets saw gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) attracting investors for the first time in a month after heavy outflows.

The inflows come as Fed officials expressed concern that a sharp slowdown in the global economy could delay an increase in U.S. interest rates, according to minutes of the latest Fed meeting released last week.

Higher rates would have boosted the dollar, but dented the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold. Those remarks followed soft industrial data out of Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, and lowered global growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund last week. Gold posted its best week in nearly four months last week, as the dollar fell after a 12-week winning streak.

The metal could gain further as a selloff in global equities sent Japanese stocks skidding to two-month lows on Tuesday on heightened concerns about the health of the world economy, triggering demand for safe-havens such as U.S. bonds, bullion and the Japanese yen.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (

-2.1%

1.0%

1.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Sep)

5

 

7

 

 

  EUR

 

French CPI (MoM) (Sep)

-0.4%

-0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

French HICP (MoM) (Sep)

-0.4%

-0.3%

0.5%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep)

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)

-0.6%

-0.4%

-1.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Conditions (Oct)

3.2

18.0

25.4

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Sentiment (Oct)

-3.6

1.0

6.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.8%

-1.6%

0.9%

 

 

  EUR

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment

4.1

7.1

14.2

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Wednesday, October 15

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

 

-35.0K

-37.2K

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi  

 

 

   

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

 

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