Gold Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold continued to climb as traders moved to safe haven risk off mode, as economic data around the world began to become

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold continued to climb as traders moved to safe haven risk off mode, as economic data around the world began to become worrisome. Australian, Japanese and eurozone data along with the UK seem to point to a shift from recovery mode. Gold added $3.70 today to trade at 1233.70. Gold retained overnight gains on Tuesday to trade near its highest in four weeks as investor appetite for riskier assets eased amid global growth worries, while a softer dollar also underpinned prices of the metal.

A sell-off in the stock markets saw gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) attracting investors for the first time in a month after heavy outflows.

The inflows come as Fed officials expressed concern that a sharp slowdown in the global economy could delay an increase in U.S. interest rates, according to minutes of the latest Fed meeting released last week.

Higher rates would have boosted the dollar, but dented the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold. Those remarks followed soft industrial data out of Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, and lowered global growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund last week. Gold posted its best week in nearly four months last week, as the dollar fell after a 12-week winning streak.

The metal could gain further as a selloff in global equities sent Japanese stocks skidding to two-month lows on Tuesday on heightened concerns about the health of the world economy, triggering demand for safe-havens such as U.S. bonds, bullion and the Japanese yen.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (	-2.1%	1.0%	1.3%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Sep)	5		7
EUR	French CPI (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.4%
EUR	French HICP (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.5%
EUR	Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.4%
GBP	CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Sep)	1.2%	1.4%	1.5%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)	-0.6%	-0.4%	-1.2%
EUR	German ZEW Conditions (Oct)	3.2	18.0	25.4
EUR	German ZEW Sentiment (Oct)	-3.6	1.0	6.9
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.8%	-1.6%	0.9%
EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	4.1	7.1	14.2

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Wednesday, October 15
	CNY	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		1.7%	2.0%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi
	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-35.0K	-37.2K
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
	USD	PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.6%
	EUR	ECB President Draghi