Gold Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold eased by $10.00 to trade at 1224.10 as the US dollar recovered. Gold eased for a second session as the dollar and

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold eased by $10.00 to trade at 1224.10 as the US dollar recovered. Gold eased for a second session as the dollar and equities edged up after sharp losses, but lingering worries over the global economy could support the safe-haven metal. Bullion has been well-bid since last week on increasing concerns over the health of the global economy. Global equities tumbled, while the economic uncertainty and its potential impact on U.S. monetary policy sent the dollar lower, boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge.

Economic data from Europe continued to be weak, a factor that could keep gold prices supported despite the short-term losses.

The German government sharply lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next, euro zone industrial production tumbled in August, and a closely watched German economic sentiment index registered its first negative reading since November 2012, at the height of the euro zone crisis.

U.S. economic data later in the day could provide further cues for gold prices. Gold dropped to this year’s low of $1,183.24 an ounce in London on Oct. 6 as signs of an improving U.S. economy added to the case for higher borrowing costs, reducing the metal’s allure because it generally only offers investors returns through price gains. The commodity then rebounded as U.S. policy makers indicated a worldwide economic slowdown may delay U.S. interest-rate increases.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Consumer Sentiment	0.9%		-4.6%
CNY	CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
CNY	CPI (YoY) (Sep)	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%
CNY	PPI (YoY) (Sep)	-1.8%	-1.6%	-1.2%
JPY	Industrial Production	-1.9%	-1.5%	-1.5%
EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
EUR	ECB President Draghi
GBP	Average Earnings Index	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%
GBP	Claimant Count	-18.6K	-35.0K	-33.2K
GBP	Unemployment Rate	6.0%	6.1%	6.2%
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Core Retail Sales		0.3%	0.3%
USD	NY Empire State		20.50	27.54
USD	PPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.6%
USD	Business Inventories		0.4%	0.4%
USD	Federal Budget		80.9B	-129.0B
USD	Beige Book
EUR	ECB President Draghi

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Sep)			56.5
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)		0.7%	0.7%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.4%	0.1%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Sep)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		290K	287K
CAD	Manufacturing Sales		-1.6%	2.5%
USD	Industrial Production		0.4%	-0.1%
USD	Phil Fed Manufacturing		20.0	22.5