Gold Fundamental Analysis October 31, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold fell over $20 at one point today and is holding down $18.80 at 1206.10 as Goldman Sach’s reasserted their outlook for

Gold Fundamental Analysis October 31, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold fell over $20 at one point today and is holding down $18.80 at 1206.10 as Goldman Sach’s reasserted their outlook for prices to fall to 1180.00. The dollar surged to a three-week high, bond yields rose and gold fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve ended its six-year quantitative easing bond-buying program. The decision was widely expected, but a relatively hawkish tone to the accompanying statement was not. It prompted financial markets to rethink the growing consensus that the Fed’s first interest rate hike would be late in 2015. The biggest moves were in currency and bond markets. The dollar rose sharply against all its major counterparts, and the two-year U.S. bond yield posted its biggest one-day rise in almost four years.

There will be more key events toward the weekend, including Thursday’s release of U.S. gross domestic product data for July-September, as well as a Bank of Japan policy-setting meeting and the release of its latest economic growth and inflation projections, both on Friday. Strong readings in the upcoming GDP data could prompt the dollar to test retaking ¥110, but on the other hand traders could grow cautious if the greenback approaches the threshold, market sources said. The odds of Fed borrowing costs going up by October 2015 climbed to about 72%, from 66% on October 24, based on futures prices. The central bank has held its key rate at zero to 0.25 percent since 2008.

Bullion slid 28% last year and investors’ dumped metal from gold-backed exchange-traded products on expectations for reduced U.S. stimulus as the economy improves. ETP holdings fell 2.6 metric tons yesterday to 1,649.5 tons, remaining at a five-year low, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	HIA New Home Sales	0.0%		3.3%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY)	9.0%	8.5%	9.4%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
GBP	MPC Member Cunliffe
EUR	Spanish GDP (QoQ)	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%
EUR	German Unemployment	-22K	5K	9K
EUR	German Unemployment	6.7%	6.7%	6.7%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		3.0%	4.6%
USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ)		2.0%	2.1%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		283K	283K
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending		-4.3%	-4.7%
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY)		3.0%	3.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)		2.5%	2.6%
AUD	PPI (YoY) (Q3)			2.3%
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)			-0.1%
AUD	Private Sector Credit		0.4%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Retail Sales		-1.0%	2.5%
EUR	French Consumer		-0.3%	-0.7%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)		0.8%	0.8%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate		11.5%	11.5%
USD	Core PCE Price Index			1.5%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Aug)		0.0%	0.0%
USD	Chicago PMI (Oct)		60.0	60.5
USD	Michigan Consumer		86.4	86.4