Gold Fundamental Forecast – September 13, 2016

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Published: Sep 12, 2016, 11:28 GMT+00:00

Gold eased a bit in the Asian sessions and regained about $1 of its losses as the European markets began trading, but there seems to be no directional

Gold Fundamental Forecast – September 13, 2016

Gold eased a bit in the Asian sessions and regained about $1 of its losses as the European markets began trading, but there seems to be no directional guide for the precious metal. Gold is trading at 1331.85 and is expected to sit there until the last few Fed members speak late today. The Fed will then move into its blackout period ahead of next week’s meeting.

Gold prices ended flat last week. From a high of $1,352.7 on Wednesday, gold prices dropped to $1,327 by Friday following comments from a Federal Reserve Official that the central bank is on course to do the second rate hike soon.

The Fed funds futures on Friday showed that the market sees a 30 per cent probability of a rate hike in September (over half the market, however, still sees the next rate hike coming only in December).

SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF in the world, saw holdings decline from 952 tonnes on Tuesday to 939.94 tonnes on Friday.

A chorus of hawkish comments from Fed officials kept hopes alive for a September rate hike despite a recent spate of disappointing economic data, including only a modest rise in US nonfarm payrolls. After Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren spoke on Friday, odds on a rate hike in September rose to 30 per cent probability from 24 per cent before his comments.

Fed governor Lael Brainard is scheduled to give a talk in Chicago later on Monday, one day before the central bank’s communications blackout period takes effect.

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September 13, 2016

CNY	FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) Y	2	4.3
AUD	RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech	2
CNY	Retail Sales Y	2	10.2	10.3
CNY	Industrial Production Y	2	6	6.1
EUR	Wholesale Price Index M	2	0.2
EUR	Wholesale Price Index Y	2	-1.4
EUR	Consumer Price Index Y	2	0.4	0.4
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices M	2	-0.1	-0.1
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices Y	2	0.3	0.3
EUR	Consumer Price Index M	2	0.1	0
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input M	2	3.3	0.5
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input Y	2	4.3	8.1
GBP	PPI Core Output Y	2	1	1.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output M	2	0.3	0.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output Y	2	0.3	1.1
GBP	PPI Core Output M	2	0.4	0.2
GBP	Consumer Price Index M	2	-0.1	0.4
GBP	Consumer Price Index Y	3	0.6	0.7
GBP	Core Consumer Price Index Y	3	1.3	1.4
EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	3	4.6	6.7
EUR	ZEW Survey – Current Situation	2	57.6	56
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	2	0.5	2.5
USD	10-Year Note Auction	2	1.503
USD	Monthly Budget Statement	2	-113

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

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