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Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast March 2015
By:
Outlook and Recommendation Gold ended down for the month but moved off its lows after falling below the $1200 level mid-month to end at 1212.90. Both
Outlook and Recommendation
Gold ended down for the month but moved off its lows after falling below the $1200 level mid-month to end at 1212.90. Both short- and long-term interest rates are expected to remain historically low. Many central banks around the world, including Canada, are easing policy in a bid to offset the softening trend in growth and inflation. Most currencies have weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, with local stock markets supported by the abundant liquidity which central banks have provided to revive sluggish global growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates, though the timing and extent of the renewed tightening will depend upon the strength of the economic rebound and signs that the reduced employment slack is beginning to pressure wages.
Geopolitical issues remain the wild card in the outlook. The growing anti-austerity backlash in the Eurozone threatens the region’s integrity. Problems in the Ukraine have intensified the strains between Russia and the West. The rise in international terrorism along with cyber security threats have added to the heightened level of uncertainty worldwide.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
|
Time |
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
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|
Sunday, March 1, 2015 |
||||||||
|
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Feb) |
|
49.7 |
49.8 |
|
|||
|
Monday, March 2, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
50.1 |
|
||
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
|
50.9 |
50.9 |
|
||
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Feb) |
|
53.4 |
53.0 |
|
||
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Feb) |
|
-0.5% |
-0.6% |
|
||
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
53.1 |
53.5 |
|
||
|
Tuesday, March 3, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Mar) |
|
2.00% |
2.25% |
|
||
|
|
GBP |
Construction PMI (Feb) |
|
59.0 |
59.1 |
|
||
|
|
CAD |
GDP (MoM) (Dec) |
|
|
-0.2% |
|
||
|
Wednesday, March 4, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
AUD |
GDP (YoY) (Q4) |
|
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
||
|
|
AUD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) |
|
0.7% |
0.3% |
|
||
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI (Feb) |
|
57.5 |
57.2 |
|
||
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment |
|
220K |
213K |
|
||
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
|
56.5 |
56.7 |
|
||
|
|
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
1.00% |
0.75% |
|
||
|
Thursday, March 5, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) |
|
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
||
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision (Mar) |
|
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
||
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision (Mar) |
|
|
0.05% |
|
||
|
|
CAD |
Ivey PMI (Feb) |
|
50.0 |
45.4 |
|
||
|
Friday, March 6, 2015 |
||||||||
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) |
|
240K |
257K |
|
|||
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate (Feb) |
|
5.6% |
5.7% |
|
|||
|
Sunday, March 8, 2015 |
||||||||
|
CNY |
Trade Balance (Feb) |
|
|
60.03B |
|
|||
|
Tuesday, March 10, 2015 |
||||||||
|
CNY |
CPI (YoY) (Feb) |
|
|
0.8% |
|
|||
|
Wednesday, March 11, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
|
|
7.9% |
|
||
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production |
|
|
0.1% |
|
||
|
Thursday, March 12, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
NZD |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
||
|
|
AUD |
Employment Change (Feb) |
|
|
-12.2K |
|
||
|
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
0.4% |
-0.9% |
|
||
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) |
|
0.4% |
-0.8% |
|
||
|
Friday, March 13, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Feb) |
|
0.1% |
-0.8% |
|
||
|
|
CAD |
Employment Change (Feb) |
|
|
35.4K |
|
||
|
Tuesday, March 17, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic |
|
|
53.0 |
|
||
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Feb) |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Wednesday, March 18, 2015 |
||||||||
|
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index |
|
|
2.1% |
|
||
|
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
|
|
-38.6K |
|
||
|
Thursday, March 19, 2015 |
||||||||
|
NZD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) |
|
|
1.0% |
|
|||
|
Friday, March 20, 2015 |
||||||||
|
CAD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
|
-2.3% |
|
|||
|
Saturday, March 21, 2015 |
||||||||
|
All Day |
|
|
Japan – Spring Equinox Day |
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About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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