Gold News: Key Retracement Holds While Traders Eye PCE for Gold Price Future Moves

Gold Price Holds Above Key Retracement Zone as Traders Watch PCE Data

Spot gold is pushing slightly higher late Thursday, holding just above the key retracement zone between $4192.36 and $4133.95. Traders are watching this band closely — a sustained bid above it keeps the door open for a breakout through this week’s high at $4264.70 and puts the all-time high at $4381.44 back in play.

If sellers crack the 50% retracement at $4133.95, the market risks a slide toward the 50-day moving average at $4067.39, a major support and trend indicator.

At 19:06 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4208.40, up $5.28 or +0.13%.

Gold Market Steady as Yields Firm and Dollar Softens

Gold stayed relatively flat through the session as firmer Treasury yields offset the support from a weaker dollar. The 10-year yield moved up toward 4.104%, while the dollar index slipped to a one-month low before a slight late-session uptick. That mix prevented gold from extending its early push higher. Marex analyst Edward Meir said higher yields are capping the upside, even as dollar weakness offers a partial offset.

Thursday’s labor data complicated the picture. Jobless claims dropped sharply to 191,000 — the lowest reading in more than three years — well under expectations of 220,000. But the ADP report showed private payrolls falling by 32,000 in November, the steepest decline in over two and a half years. That split reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates next week.

Fed Cut Expectations Support Gold Price Outlook

More than 100 economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate a 25-basis-point cut at the December 9–10 meeting, with futures markets pricing nearly a 90% probability. Lower rates typically improve gold’s appeal relative to yield-bearing assets. U.S. employers have announced job cuts exceeding one million this year, and analysts say the Fed is increasingly focused on labor-market risks rather than inflation overshoots.

Treasury yields across the curve inched higher — the 2-year near 3.529% and the 30-year around 4.759% — though traders largely looked past the volatility, keeping their eyes on Friday’s September PCE release, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. ISM services data at 52.6% suggested the U.S. economy remains steady heading into year-end.

Dollar Weakness Extends as Rate-Cut Bets Build

The dollar drifted lower through most of the session as traders doubled down on expectations of a December rate cut. The euro held near $1.1668, and the yen firmed to a 2-1/2-week high. Political considerations added another layer, with speculation that Kevin Hassett could replace Jerome Powell next year — a potential catalyst for further easing and dollar pressure.

Gold Price Forecast: Bias Remains Mildly Bullish Above $4133.95

As long as gold holds above $4133.95, the bias leans bullish with $4264.70 the key topside level in play. A break under $4133.95 would shift control to sellers and expose the 50-day moving average at $4067.39.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.