Gold News: Price Consolidates as Traders Await ADP Jobs Data and Fed Rate Signals

Will Gold Bulls Clear $4046.60 or Fade Before Private Jobs Data?

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is holding a tight range early this week, as traders hesitate ahead of key U.S. economic data and ongoing fiscal uncertainty in Washington. Monday’s modest uptick puts gold just under Friday’s minor top at $4046.60, a level that could open the door to short-term upside — but only if buyers can break through heavy resistance.

At 12:42 GMT, (XAU/USD) is trading $4009.75, up $6.94 or +0.17%.

Dollar Near Three-Month High, Fed Outlook Capped by Data Gaps

The U.S. dollar index is testing the top of its recent six-month range, last seen at 99.942, the highest since August 1. Hawkish Fed repricing continues to support the greenback, even as last week’s 25 bp rate cut may have marked the last move for the year. Several Fed officials expressed unease with further easing, and markets now assign a roughly 70% probability to another cut in December.

That said, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown — now entering day 34 — has blocked the release of key economic reports, including this Friday’s NFP print. With that in mind, traders will focus on ADP private payrolls and ISM PMIs for clues on growth. Still, the data vacuum may limit how much conviction the Fed or markets can apply heading into year-end.

Yields Dip Slightly as Shutdown Nears Historic Length

Treasury yields are offering mild support to gold, with the 10-year note down to 4.089% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.586%. The longer the shutdown drags on, the more likely we are to see knock-on effects in the broader economy — a potential tailwind for gold if risk sentiment weakens.

China Tax Policy Weighs on Demand Outlook, but UBS Sees Limited Global Impact

Gold also faces headwinds from a shift in Chinese policy. Beijing ended tax exemptions for some gold retailers over the weekend, which could dampen domestic demand in the world’s top consumer market. UBS downplayed the global impact, citing strong investment and central bank buying, but it adds another potential drag for bulls counting on support from Asian markets.

Gold Price Forecast: Cautious Bias with Key Levels in Play

Near term, gold remains in consolidation with resistance between $4000 and $4050. A breakout above $4046.60 could trigger momentum, but bulls would still face heavy resistance in the $4133.95–$4192.36 retracement zone.

On the downside, the long-term pivot at $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average at $3833.85 remain critical. A decisive break below that area would shift the bias bearish, with some metrics pointing to $3500.20 as a deeper correction target.

Until clearer U.S. economic data or a breakout develops, gold likely stays range‑bound — but the setup is vulnerable if key support fails.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.