Gold Price Eyes Breakout as Shutdown Hits Data Flow and Dollar Slips
Spot gold is hovering just below its record high of $3895.50 early Thursday, straddling a key swing chart target at $3879.64. The market is balanced at this level, but a breakout above the record high could trigger an acceleration toward the psychological $4000.00 mark.
At 11:04 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3880.64, up $15.11 or +0.39%.
Will the Federal Reserve Lose Its Grip Without Key Data?
With the U.S. government officially shut down, a major hole has opened in the economic calendar. Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls won’t be released, forcing traders to lean more heavily on private data and technical signals. That’s already playing out: Wednesday’s ADP print showed a surprise 32,000 job drop in September — the second straight monthly decline.
Deutsche Bank analysts noted the blackout is increasing market sensitivity to private releases. Traders are now pricing in a near-lock 25 bp Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Treasury Yields Dip, Gold Catches a Bid
Yields edged lower across the curve Thursday morning, with the U.S. 10-year at 4.094% and the 30-year bond at 4.701%. The 2-year yield held steady at 3.545%. The move lower in yields supports gold’s bid near all-time highs.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its high-conviction long call on gold, citing speculative interest and ETF inflows. SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose 0.59% on Wednesday to 1,018.89 metric tons — the highest since July 2022. Goldman now sees intensified upside risk to its $4000/oz and $4300/oz gold forecasts through 2026.
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See all Gold forecastsDollar Index on the Brink — Could a Breakdown Fuel a Gold Breakout?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is slipping, currently hovering near a key pivot at 97.412. A sustained move below that level could trigger a selloff toward the minor bottom at 97.199. With major resistance at the 50-day moving average of 98.041, dollar weakness remains a supportive factor for gold.
Gold Price Forecast: Breakout Above $3895.50 or Pullback Toward Key Retracements
The immediate bias hinges on price action around $3895.50. A confirmed breakout could open the way toward $4000.00.
If resistance holds, price is vulnerable to a near-term correction into the 50% retracement levels at $3806.51 and $3754.16.
A break below the swing bottom at $3717.52 would shift the minor trend to the downside and signal loss of near-term momentum.
Stay focused on the chart — without fresh data, technical levels and DXY action will drive the next move.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
