Gold Hovers Near Key Support as Traders Eye US-China Trade Talks and CPI Data
Gold edged higher in early Monday trading, rebounding slightly after Friday’s steep drop, as the market remains tightly bound to a key technical pivot at $3310.48. A break below this level could send prices tumbling toward the next pivot at $3277.91 and potentially test the 50-day moving average at $3265.40 — a level that has controlled the intermediate trend for several months.
Gold Supported by Weaker Dollar, but Upside Capped Below $3403.63
The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.3% to 98.92, easing pressure on gold by making it more affordable for holders of other currencies. While Friday’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls briefly boosted the dollar, the market focus has now shifted to this week’s U.S.-China trade talks and Wednesday’s inflation print.
Until gold convincingly clears resistance at $3403.63, rallies are likely to be sold into. A breakout above that level, however, would shift near-term sentiment to bullish.
US-China Trade Talks Under Scrutiny as Treasury Yields Ease
Gold’s safe-haven appeal is also being underpinned by ongoing trade tensions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in London.
Although investors are skeptical about any immediate breakthroughs, renewed dialogue provides a mild risk-off tone. Treasury yields eased slightly ahead of the meeting, with the 10-year yield down to 4.504% and the 2-year at 4.02%, providing further support for gold prices.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecastsChina’s Central Bank Adds Gold for Seventh Straight Month
In another bullish development, China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in May for the seventh consecutive month, signaling ongoing institutional demand. This trend reflects continued diversification away from dollar-based assets and reaffirms gold’s appeal during geopolitical and financial stress.
Gold Prices Forecast: CPI and Fed Rate Outlook to Drive Near-Term Direction
While support from a weaker dollar and geopolitical concerns remain intact, gold’s immediate direction hinges on upcoming U.S. inflation data. Traders will scrutinize May’s CPI print on Wednesday for evidence of tariff-related price pressures and clues on the Fed’s next move. The central bank remains in a pre-meeting blackout, but market pricing now reflects reduced expectations for rate cuts this year — from two to one, likely in October.
Unless gold decisively breaks above $3403.63, the market remains vulnerable to selling pressure. A failure to hold the 50-day moving average near $3265 could trigger accelerated downside. For now, the outlook leans bearish unless buyers reclaim control above key resistance.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
