The Day Ahead: Markets Calm Today Before CPI and U.S.-China Trade Headlines

Futures Flat as Markets Brace for Data and Diplomacy

U.S. equity futures are little changed early Monday as traders position ahead of a packed macro week. S&P 500 futures are up 0.01%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.11%, and Dow futures are flat. The S&P 500 closed above 6,000 last week for the first time since February, capping a second straight week of gains across all three majors.

Momentum has been supported by strength in cyclical sectors and easing investor concern around tariffs and domestic growth. Strategas’ Chris Verrone noted late Friday that “cyclicals making new highs versus defensives” signals broad market resilience despite recent soft data.

This week’s tone will be set by incoming inflation reports and Monday’s U.S.-China trade talks in London, which could shape tariff policy moving forward.

Today’s Data: Light Schedule Before Inflation Storm

• 10:00 GMT – Wholesale Inventories (April)
  The only economic release today, wholesale inventories, is unlikely to move markets directly. However, it could add context to Wednesday’s CPI by showing back-end supply trends.

Focus now shifts to May CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday), both of which will be dissected for evidence of tariff-related pricing pressure. These prints carry real policy weight ahead of the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting. Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan sentiment data will also include consumer inflation expectations, a variable closely tracked by FOMC voters.

Post-Bell Prints: Eyes on Consumer Resilience

Reports after the bell:
• CVGW – Calavo Growers: est. EPS $0.53
• CASY – Casey’s General Stores: est. EPS $1.97
No pre-market names on deck. While CVGW is niche, CASY will offer read-throughs on fuel margins and consumer behavior across middle-America convenience spending.

Index Futures at Critical Junctures

S&P 500 Futures: Price is consolidating just beneath 6025.00 resistance. The index reclaimed its 200-day SMA at 5900.76 last week. Support sits at 5756.50 and 5596.00. A clean breakout above 6025.00 sets the stage for a retest of all-time high at 6236.50.

Nasdaq 100 Futures: Hovering under 21935 with next upside target at 22,656.75. Pullback support seen at 20727 and the 200-day SMA at 20,843.04.

Dow Futures: Price remains capped at 42979, with 43148 as the next key ceiling and potential trigger point for an upside breakout.  Downside levels to watch include 41236 and the 50-day SMA at 41,235.50.

Key Risks Ahead: CPI and Trade in Focus

Markets are consolidating at elevated levels, but catalysts are looming. Traders should expect volatility around Wednesday’s CPI and Friday’s PPI, with added headline risk from today’s U.S.-China talks. Directional bias will likely be defined by inflation tone and tariff guidance, as the Fed enters blackout mode ahead of next week’s rate decision.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.