Gold News: Rate Cut Odds and Tariff Tensions Fuel $3,900 Gold Price Prediction

Fed Rate Cut Bets Driving Gold Higher

Dollar Weakness Adds to Gold’s Upside Case

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming September 17 policy meeting continue to grow, with CME FedWatch now pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 basis-point cut.

As non-yielding gold typically thrives in low-rate environments, these expectations are a core driver behind the current surge. Additionally, persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar—down over 9% year-to-date—has further bolstered gold’s appeal by lowering the cost for foreign buyers.

Adding to the pressure on the dollar are renewed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. President Trump’s public criticism of Chair Jerome Powell and a recent, unprecedented attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook have stirred unease about political interference, a factor weighing heavily on USD sentiment and strengthening gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Tariff Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Supporting Bid

Fresh trade uncertainty emerged after the Trump administration moved to fast-track a Supreme Court review on tariffs that were recently ruled illegal by an appellate court. The political and legal wrangling over tariffs is being closely watched by investors, many of whom see gold as a hedge against growing trade instability and legal deadlock in Washington.

Independent analyst Ross Norman noted, “Gold provides a welcome respite from market turbulence,” while others see the metal as potentially extending gains in the $3,600–$3,900 range in the coming weeks.

Gold Prices Forecast: Momentum Points to Further Upside

With momentum running hot, support holding firm at $3,500.20, and external factors including Fed policy uncertainty, a weakening dollar, and trade tensions continuing to support the bid, the gold rally shows no immediate signs of stalling.

All eyes are now on Friday’s non-farm payrolls data for clues on the Fed’s rate decision. Until then, the gold market remains in bullish territory, with the next major resistance likely forming around the $3,879.64 level. A confirmed break above $3,600 would further strengthen the case for continued upside in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.