Gold Price Forecast – Expect One More Shakeout Before Bottoming in June

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 71.

US Dollar

The U.S. dollar surged following Friday’s employment report and is now approaching the 100.50 breakout level of a rounded-bottom formation. Sustained closes above this key resistance level would support a move toward the 103 – 104 area. Such a rally in the dollar would likely create downside pressure on precious metals.

Gold

Gold closed below its 200-day moving average, erasing all of its gains for 2026. The Gold Cycle Indicator has fallen to 71, its lowest reading since September 2023. We are now at a point in the cycle where prices could drop a bit further, but that outcome is not guaranteed.

From a longer-term perspective, I believe this move below the 200-day moving average will ultimately be viewed as an attractive entry opportunity. In 2006, gold traded below its 200-day moving average for just over a month before resuming its uptrend and rallying more than 220% over the following five years. If a similar advance were to occur from current levels, gold could approach $14,000 by 2031.

Silver

Silver fell more than 8% on Friday, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown and a final move lower into our mid-year target zone. While additional near-term weakness remains possible, the longer-term outlook continues to be constructive.

In 2006, silver successfully held its 200-day moving average before resuming its uptrend and rallying more than 350% over the following several years. If a similar advance were to unfold from current levels, it would support a target near $300.

Platinum

Platinum finished below its 200-day moving average, and prices could close the gap near $1,600 before establishing a low.

GDX

Mining stocks are down 8% year-to-date following their record 154% gain in 2025. From a technical perspective, I see two unfilled price gaps that could act as downside targets near $77.50 and $72.00.

Going forward, I will be closely monitoring price action for signs of a bottoming process and evidence that the correction is nearing completion.

GDXJ

Junior miners are down 11% year-to-date following their impressive 172% gain in 2025. From a technical standpoint, the open price gaps near $97.50 and $91.00 represent potential downside targets.

If aggressive selling pressure continues early next week, I may expand the target zone to include major support near $85.00. As always, I’ll be watching closely for signs of stabilization and a potential bottoming process.

SILJ

Silver juniors are down just under 5% year-to-date following a record 183% gain in 2025. The open price gaps near $24.00 and $22.75 represent potential downside targets as the correction continues to unfold.

If heavy selling pressure persists early next week, I may need to lower the target zone to include major support near $20.00. In the meantime, I’ll be watching closely for signs that the decline is nearing exhaustion, and a bottom may be forming.

S&P 500

After nine consecutive weeks of gains, stocks are finally undergoing a well-deserved correction. Initial support comes in near the 7,260 price gap and the 50-day EMA.

A sustained break below the 50-day EMA would increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback, opening the door for a retest of support near 7,000 as we move into mid-year.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin breached its February low and is attempting to stage a rebound. However, prices need to reclaim the $65,000 level quickly to reduce the risk of a continued decline toward the $50,000 area.

The June breakdown reinforces our expectation for an eventual test of $40,000, with a final cycle low potentially forming in the October timeframe.

Final Thoughts

• Expect increased volatility surrounding this week’s CPI data release and next week’s central bank announcements.
• A closer analysis reveals an ideal target zone for gold between $4,200 and $4,275. If reached, this zone could mark a significant bottom by month-end. Ideally, silver would bottom in the mid-$60s.
• If the U.S. dollar breaks decisively above 101, it would support an upside breakout toward 104. Such a move could trigger a deeper correction in gold, with a worst-case scenario targeting the $3,500 area.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.