Gold Price Forecast – The $1490 Level Is Critical

Gold futures are holding support around $1500 ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. Our intermediate cycle work supports a correction into October or November. A breakdown below $1490 in gold futures would signal the next leg lower in precious metals.
AG Thorson

Intermediate corrections are natural. In gold, prices tend to bottom about every 6-months (give or take a month). The last low came in May. If the current cycle remains on course, the next significant bottom should arrive in late October or early November.

Gold surged as US interest rates plunged over the summer. The 10-year Treasury yield collapsed from 2.57% to 1.43% while gold rocketed from $1267 to $1566 in 4-months. With Treasury yields stabilizing, gold is finally taking a breather.

In August, Fed fund futures were pricing in a September rate cut at 100%. Those odds have slipped to 63.5% before tomorrow’s announcement. A pause on interest rate cuts could send gold below the critical $1490 level.

Longer-term we are very bullish on gold. Prices broke out in June and confirmed a new bull market. On a near-term basis, we are expecting a multi-week correction and perhaps the last great buying opportunity as gold declines into the next 6-month low.

After peaking at 440 in August, our Gold Cycle Indicator (GCI) dipped back into neutral territory (currently 334). We won’t expect a sustainable bottom in gold until the GCI slips below 100 in October or November.

Take a look at the best Gold trading brokers for 2019

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit

Don't miss a thing!

Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.