Gold Price Forecast – War Risks and $200 Oil Could Ignite Gold’s Next Bull Run

The conflict involving Iran is moving further up the escalation ladder, and White House advisor Robert Pape warns that we may be caught in an escalation trap.

According to Pape, the next phase (stage 3) could involve U.S. boots on the ground in Iran, a development that might trigger retaliatory terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.

Iran has also suggested it wants oil prices to reach $200 per barrel. As a result, even if Trump were to step back, the Strait could remain closed until Iran secures concessions it considers sufficient.

Precious metals could come under pressure if the stock market declines sharply. However, any such weakness would likely be brief, and a renewed safe-haven bid could push gold to new all-time highs later this year.

Rising Treasury Yields Signal the Return of Inflation

The weekly chart of the 2-year Treasury yield is breaking higher from a multi-year consolidation, supporting the return of inflation.

The 2-year Treasury yield weekly chart breaks above a multi-year descending wedge consolidation, with the yield at 3.734% — a signal that inflation pressures may be returning. Chart via TradingView.

$200 Oil Would Have Catastrophic Global Consequences

WTIC: Oil is rising, and in my view there’s no logical reason for it to be trading below $100. If Iran achieves its $200 price target, it could have catastrophic effects globally. Even if the U.S. declares victory and backs away, Iran would likely keep the strait closed until it gets what it wants. Consequently, I believe this conflict could drag on for months, resulting in global market weakness and spiking inflation.

WTI crude oil daily chart shows a parabolic spike from the mid-$60s to $96.39, with a recent intraday high of $119.48. The MACD is surging, reflecting extreme bullish momentum driven by Middle East supply fears. Chart via StockCharts.

Gold Must Hold the 50-Day EMA to Avoid a Deeper Pullback

GOLD: Gold slipped nearly 2% Thursday, and prices must hold the 50-day EMA to prevent a retest of the February lows. A broad market sell-off could initiate short-term selling, but I doubt it would last more than a week or two before triggering a flight to safety.

Spot gold daily chart shows a pullback from the $5,608 high to $5,084.14 — testing the 50-day EMA at $4,911. A hold here preserves the bullish structure; a break below opens a retest of the February lows near $4,274. Chart via StockCharts.

Silver Digests Its Explosive Q4 Rally Near Key Support

SILVER: Silver needs to hold above its early March low near $78.00 to prevent a retest of support around $70.00. In the meantime, prices are digesting the explosive move from Q4.

Spot silver daily chart consolidates around $83.76 after an explosive rally to $121.64. The 50-day EMA at $82.13 provides near-term support, with a critical floor at $70.00. Chart via StockCharts.

Platinum Risks a C-Wave Decline Below $1,980

PLATINUM: Platinum needs to stay above $1,980 to avoid triggering a C-wave decline back towards $1,600.

Spot platinum daily chart shows prices pulling back from $2,880 to $2,132.50. A break below the $1,980 support level could trigger a C-wave corrective decline toward $1,600. Chart via StockCharts.

Mining Stocks Face Pressure as Equities Weaken

GDX: Gold Miners Must Hold $95.96 to Avoid a Breakdown

GDX: Miners are back near trendline support, and prices must hold Monday’s $95.96 low to avoid an intermediate-degree breakdown. If the S&P 500 turns sharply lower, it could negatively affect mining stocks.

GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) daily chart shows prices testing rising trendline support at $99.30. A break below Monday’s $95.96 low would confirm an intermediate-degree breakdown. Chart via StockCharts.

GDXJ: Junior Miners at Trendline Support Near $127.79

GDXJ: Juniors are back at trendline support and must hold $127.79 to avoid an intermediate breakdown toward the $110–$120 range.

GDXJ (VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF) daily chart shows prices testing trendline support at $131.59. The $127.79 level is the line in the sand — a break below targets the $110–$120 zone. Chart via StockCharts.

SILJ: Silver Juniors Need to Hold $31.88 to Prevent a Breakdown

SILJ: Silver juniors need to hold above Monday’s $31.88 low to prevent a potential breakdown below $30.00.

SILJ (Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF) daily chart shows prices at $33.37, testing a rising trendline. A break below the $31.88 low opens the door to a move below $30.00. Chart via StockCharts.

S&P 500 Could Face a 10%–20% Correction Into Mid-Year

S&P 500: After Monday’s miraculous recovery, stocks are rolling over into what could become a 10%–20% correction into mid-year. Unfortunately, a weak stock market could place increased selling pressure on metals and miners despite rising geopolitical tensions. The line in the sand for me is the November 6,520 low; a break below that would promote a breakdown towards 6,000 or lower.

The S&P 500 daily chart shows a rollover from the 7,002 high to 6,672, with the critical November low at 6,520 marked in blue. A decisive break below this level could accelerate losses toward 6,000. Chart via StockCharts.

Bitcoin Remains Resilient — But the 4-Year Cycle Points to an October Bottom

BITCOIN: Bitcoin remains resilient despite increasing pressure on risk assets. The 2022 analog suggested we should be breaking below $60,000 around now, and, frankly, I’m surprised it hasn’t happened yet. If prices fail to make fresh lows in March, a new pattern may begin to emerge. From a 4-year cycle perspective, I’m still not expecting a final bottom until October.

Bitcoin daily chart shows the decline from the cycle peak near $126,300 to $70,191.89 — still above the expected $60,000 breakdown. The 4-year cycle analog suggests a final bottom may not arrive until October 2026. Chart via StockCharts.

Summary: Brace for Volatility as Geopolitical Risks Intensify

Expect increased volatility for the foreseeable future as each side climbs the escalation ladder.

A spike in oil to $200 could trigger a global liquidity event and market selloff, potentially dragging metals and mining stocks temporarily lower.

Bottom Line: War risks, $200 oil, and rising inflation expectations are building the case for gold’s next leg higher. Short-term weakness in precious metals is likely a buying opportunity — not a trend change.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.