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James Hyerczyk
Comex Gold

Gold futures have recovered from early session weakness and are now in a position to post a daily closing price reversal bottom. Sellers hit the gold market hard earlier in the session on concerns over the weakening global economy. This news helped drive up the U.S. Dollar which led to a drop in demand for dollar-denominated gold. Gold mounted a turnaround later in the session on concerns over U.S.-China trade relations after a high ranking U.S. official said China and the United States were still far away on striking a trade deal. Later, gold buyers reacted to a report that the meeting between President Trump and Xi may not take place until after the March 1 deadline.

At 18:25 GMT, April Comex Gold futures are trading $1314.00, down $0.40 or -0.03%. Earlier in the session, the market was trading as low at $1306.40.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1331.10 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $1281.50 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is $1281.50 to $1331.10. Its retracement zone at $1306.30 to $1300.40 is support. Today’s low at $1306.40 came within 10 cents of hitting the 50% level at $1306.30. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to show up on a test of this area.

The major retracement zone is $1319.70 to $1293.60. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. Trading inside this zone means the longer-term trend is neutral. It will regain strength on a close over $1319.70. The tone will weaken on a sustained move under $1293.60.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action and the strong comeback rally late in the session makes yesterday’s close at $1314.40 the key level to watch into the close.

Overtaking $1314.40 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Closing over this level will form a closing price reversal bottom. If this creates enough late session upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at $1319.70.

Taking out $1319.70 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the main top at $1331.10 the next major target.

The inability to overcome $1314.40 and close higher for the session will signal the presence of sellers. This will likely occur if the U.S. Dollar strengthens into the close.

On the downside, the major targets are $1306.30 and $1300.40.

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