Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – August 17, 2018 Forecast

Comex gold futures are trading lower early Friday. Although yesterday’s counter-trend rally was impressive, it did not yield a closing price reversal bottom, which would’ve signaled a shift in momentum to the upside.

The market is currently trading inside yesterday’s range which indicates investor indecision and impending volatility. Gold traders are followers at this time, not leaders so they aren’t likely to make a move until the U.S. Dollar makes its move. A weaker dollar will be supportive. A stronger dollar will put renewed pressure on the dollar-denominated asset.

At 0717 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1181.10, down $2.90 or -0.24%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1167.10 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1189.10 will make $1167.10 a new minor bottom.

The main range is $1244.70 to $1167.10. Its retracement zone at $1205.90 to $1215.10 is the primary upside target. If we get there, the move is likely to be met by sellers since the main trend is down.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the December Comex Gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the January 3, 2017 main bottom at $1184.00.

A sustained move under $1184.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick move into a short-term pivot at $1178.00. If this pivot fails then big sellers could return with the next targets yesterday’s low at $1167.10, the December 22, 2016 main bottom at $1166.60 and the December 16, 2016 main bottom at $1162.00.

Overtaking $1184.00 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out yesterday’s high at $1189.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

There is room to the upside, but something major has to happen to drive the U.S. Dollar lower. If the dollar plunges then gold could break out over $1189.00 with the next major target the resistance cluster at $1205.90 to $1206.70.