Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Forming Weekly Closing Price Reversal Bottom?

August Comex Gold futures are trading higher at mid-week. The price action so-far this week has put the market in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. The formation of this chart pattern will not mean the trend has turned up, but it will shift momentum to the upside if confirmed next week.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $1238.80 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A close over last week’s close at $1254.50 will form the weekly closing price reversal bottom. This could generate the start of a 2 to 3 week counter-trend rally.

The long-term range is $1158.40 to $1379.30. Its retracement zone is $1268.80 to $1242.80. The gold market is currently trading inside this zone. It is controlling the longer-term direction of the gold market.

On the downside are bottoms at $1230.70 and $1228.20.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on this week’s price action, the direction of the August Comex Gold futures contract the rest of the weekly is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s close at $1254.50.

A sustained move over $1254.50 will indicate the counter-trend buying is getting stronger and/or the shorting is getting weaker. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the 50% level at $1268.80, followed by the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1279.10. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

A sustained move under $1254.50 will signal that the short-sellers are still in control. This could trigger a retest of the Fibonacci level at $1242.80, followed closely by the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1239.40. This angle essentially stopped the selling earlier this week at $1238.80. That additional $0.60 may have been “lost motion”.

If $1238.80 fails then look for the selling to extend into $1230.70 then $1228.20. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at $1198.90.