Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – July 17, 2017 Forecast

August Comex Gold futures are trading higher shortly before the regular session opening. The market is trading inside Friday’s range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

Underpinning the market is the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates. Limiting the market on the upside is increasing demand for higher risk assets.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the forming of the closing price reversal bottom on July 10.

The major retracement zone is $1216.80 to $1197.10. This zone helped build the support base between July 10 and July 14.

The main range is $1260.00 to $1204.00. Its retracement zone at $1232.00 to $1238.60 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this zone. The lower or 50% level of this zone stopped the rally on Friday at $1232.70.

The short-term range is $1204.00 to $1232.70. Its retracement zone at $1218.40 to $1215.00 is the primary downside target. This zone also surrounds the major 50% level at $1216.80, making it a valid downside target also.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1231.30 and the earlier price action, the direction of the market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at $1230.00.

A sustained move over $1230.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the main 50% level at $1232.00 and last week’s high at $1232.70. Overcoming this area could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the main Fibonacci level at $1238.60 the next likely target. This is followed closely by a downtrending angle at $1242.70.

A sustained move under the angle at $1230.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick break into the uptrending angle at $1224.00.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under $1224.00 with the next area a support cluster at $1218.40 to $1214.00.

Basically, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1232.70 and a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $1230.00.