Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – July 21, 2017 Forecast

December Comex gold futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The market is being supported once again by the weaker U.S. Dollar.

Gold will be supported today by lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. However, gains will be limited by a rise in U.S. equity indexes. This is because increased demand for higher risk assets tends to weigh on the lower-yielding gold market. Gold is also being underpinned by lingering political events involving the President Trump.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the main bottom at $1211.10 on July 10. The main trend will turn up on a trade through $1267.10.

Today’s session begins with gold in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. We’ve already seen the higher-high. Now all we need is a lower close to form the chart pattern.

The main range is $1305.50 to $1211.10. Its retracement zone at $1258.30 to $1269.40 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers may come in on a test of this zone.

The new short-term range is $1211.10 to $1254.60. If there is a correction then its retracement zone at $1232.80 to $1227.60 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1254.00 and the upside momentum, the first target is the main 50% level at $1258.30. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level. If buyers can overcome this level then we could see an acceleration into $1267.10, followed by $1269.40.

The inability to reach $1258.30 will signal that sellers have come in early. This could drive gold back to the steep uptrending angle at $1247.10. Counter-trend buyers could come in on the initial test of this angle. If it fails as support then look for a steep break with the first target a downtrending angle at $1241.50.

Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at $1241.50 will put the market in a bearish position with the next target coming in at $1232.80.

Essentially, look for a strong upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1258.30 and for a strong downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $1247.10.