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James Hyerczyk
Comex Gold

Gold futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Wednesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, due to be released at 18:00 GMT. Policymakers are expected to pass on a June rate hike, but traders want to know when the central bank will make it first interest rate cut in more than 10 years.

At 15:19 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1348.10, down $2.60 or -0.21%.

Bullish gold traders are looking for the Fed to indicate it will make at least three rate cuts this year in July, September and December. This would set the most dovish tone. Prices are expected to strength on this news.

Gold prices could fall if the Fed indicates uncertainty over a July rate cut. This would make it appear to be a little hawkish.

Daily August Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1362.20 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $1323.60.

The minor trend is also up. A move through $1336.60 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is $1362.20 to $1336.60. Its 50% level or pivot at $1349.40 is controlling the direction of the market today.

The first downside target support is a Fibonacci level at $1332.60.

The main range is $1274.60 to $1362.20. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $1318.40 to $1307.70 will become the primary downside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the August Comex gold futures contract is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1349.40 and the short-term uptrending Gann angle at $1347.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1349.40 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into another uptrending Gann angle at $1354.60. Overtaking this angle will put gold in a strong position. This could create the upside momentum needed to talk out the high at $1358.50 and the main top at $1362.20. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1347.60 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next targets a minor bottom at $1336.60 and an uptrending Gann angle at $1335.60.

Watch for an acceleration to the downside if $1332.60 fails as support. This could trigger a break that takes out the main bottom at $1323.50 and targets a 50% level at $1318.40.

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