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James Hyerczyk
Comex Gold

Gold futures are trading slightly better on Thursday as conflicting signals from Washington and Beijing prolonged the uncertainty about a trade deal, a day after positive comments from U.S. President Donald Trump knocked the bullion off its one-month high.

Gold is trading higher for the week, but the price action has been chopping. On Tuesday, Trump dented hopes for a trade resolution when he said an agreement might have to wait until after the U.S. presidential election in November 2020, gold rallied on the news. Yesterday, Trump said that trade talks with China were going “very well”, driving gold from a one-month high.

At 06:36 GMT, February Comex gold is trading $1482.50, up $2.30 or +0.16%.

Losses may have been limited by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. On Monday, gold was underpinned by weaker-than-expected ISM US Manufacturing PMI data. On Wednesday, the ISM US Non-Manufacturing PMI report was lower than expected. Also a private sector jobs report missed the mark. All three reports pressured the U.S. Dollar, leading to increased demand for dollar-denominated gold.

Daily February Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1489.10 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $1456.60.

The market is currently trading inside a major retracement zone at $1477.30 to $1495.30.

The short-term range is $1525.20 to $1453.10. Its 50% level at $1489.10 is resistance. This level stopped the rally at $1489.10 on December 4.

The main range is $1571.70 to $1453.10. Its retracement zone at $1512.40 to $1526.40 is a potential upside target. This zone stopped the selling at $1525.20 on November 10.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on yesterday’s price action and the current price at $1482.50, the direction of the February Comex gold futures contract the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1477.30.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1477.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into $1489.10. Taking out this level could drive the market into $1495.30. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $1512.40 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1477.30 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is $1472.90. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next two targets $1456.60 and $1453.10.

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