Based on the early price action, and the current price at $1409.90, the direction of the August Comex gold futures contract into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $1407.50.
Gold futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Tuesday, however, volume and volatility remain on the low side for the third straight session. The market is also trading inside its July 11 range for a third day, which tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.
Underpinning the market are expectations of a Fed rate cut at the end of the month. Putting a lid on prices today are higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. Dollar. Both are making gold an undesirable investment. The catalyst behind the price action is a steep decline in the Euro and better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.
At 15:54 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1409.90, down $3.60 or -0.25%.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The market will strengthen on a trade through $1429.40, but taking out $1441.00 and $1442.90 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The main trend will change to down on a trade through $1387.50. Taking out $1384.70 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next main bottom coming in at $1323.60.
The short-term range is $1442.90 to $1384.70. Its 50% level or pivot at $1413.80 is controlling the direction of the market today.
The intermediate range is $1323.60 to $1442.90. If the main trend is down, its retracement zone at $1383.30 to $1369.20 will become the primary downside target.
The main range is $1274.60 to $1442.90. If the intermediate range fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the main retracement zone at $1358.80 to $1338.90.
Based on the early price action, and the current price at $1409.90, the direction of the August Comex gold futures contract into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $1407.50.
A sustained move under $1407.50 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a break into the next uptrending Gann angle at $1397.50. This is the last potential support angle before the main bottoms at $1387.50 and $1384.70, and the intermediate 50% level at $1383.30. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration into the intermediate Fibonacci level at $1369.20.
A sustained move over $1407.50 will signal the return of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with resistance layered at $1413.80, $1414.90 and $1419.60.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.