Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – May 1, 2019 Forecast

Gold futures are trading lower early Wednesday on position-squaring ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy decisions later today at 18:00 GMT. The price action suggests gold traders are leaning toward the hawkish side.

Increased demand for risky assets could also be contributing to the selling pressure. Perhaps limiting losses is the weaker U.S. Dollar and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields. On the data front, weak manufacturing PMI data from China was offset by strong growth data from the Euro Zone.

At 02:45 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1281.30, down $4.30 or -0.34%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, short-term momentum is trending higher. A trade through $1267.90 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $1314.70. However, this is highly unlikely because of the series of potential resistance levels in way.

The minor trend is up. This is generating the upside momentum.

The short-term range is $1267.90 to $1290.90. Its retracement zone at $1279.40 to $1276.70 is the first downside target. Counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this zone. They are trying to produce a secondary higher bottom.

On the upside, the nearest resistance zone is $1285.50 to $1289.90. This is followed closely by a 50% level at $1291.30.

The 50% level at $1291.30 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $1296.80, $1299.40, $1302.50 and $1306.80.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June Comex gold futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1285.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1285.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the downtrending Gann angle at $1286.70 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target a price cluster at $1289.90, $1290.90 and $1291.30.

Taking out $1291.30 could trigger an acceleration into $1296.80.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1285.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a support cluster at $1279.90 to $1279.40. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

Look for an acceleration to the downside if $1279.40 fails as support. This could trigger a break into a Fibonacci level at $1276.70. This is followed by a pair of uptrending Gann angles at $1273.90 and $1270.90. The latter is the last potential support angle before the major Fibonacci level at $1268.90 and the main bottom at $1267.90.