Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – May 31, 2019 Forecast

Gold futures are trading sharply higher with the rally being fueled by a slightly weaker U.S. Dollar, lower demand for risk, and another plunge in Treasury yields. Gold traders are increasing bets on a Fed rate cut later in the year.

On Thursday, a report from the U.S. Commerce Department showed lower inflation during the first quarter. This likely puts a rate cut on the Fed’s radar. Today’s Core PCE Price Index report could solidify the rate cut if it comes in at 0.2% or lower. In fact, weaker than expected personal spending or personal income data today should also be supportive for gold prices.

At 12:21 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1303.80, up $11.40 or +0.88%.

 

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1310.10 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The next target is the April 10 main top at $1320.70. This is followed by the March 25 main top at $1335.70.

A trade through $1274.60 and $1273.20 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is $1335.70 to $1273.20. Its retracement zone at $1304.50 to $1311.80 is the first upside target. Inside this zone is a major 50% level at $1307.70. Also inside this zone is the main top at $1310.10.

The minor range is $1310.10 to $1274.60. Its retracement zone at $1296.50 to $1292.40 is support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the August Comex Gold futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at $1304.10.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1304.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is the 50% level at $1304.50. Overtaking this level should trigger a rally into the next resistance area at $1307.10 to $1307.70. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration into $1310.10, $1311.80 and a downtrending Gann angle at $1312.20.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is $1312.20. Potential targets are $1320.70 and $1332.60.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $13041.0 will signal the presence of sellers. The nearest downside targets come in at $1298.10, $1296.50 and $1202.40.

Overview

Basically, buyers are going to have to take out $1304.50 to $1311.80 to extend this rally.