The direction of the August Comex gold market on the opening on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $1813.00.
Gold futures are trading lower late Monday after traders were chopped up throughout the session due to heightened volatility in the stock market. A plunge in Treasury yields helped provide support, but a surge in the U.S. Dollar weighed on prices.
At 20:45 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1812.90, down $2.10 or -0.12%.
The dollar index hit a more than three-month high, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, and countering the sharp fall in U.S. benchmark Treasury yields.
Sentiment in riskier markets was bruised by investors’ fears over a relentless surge in coronavirus cases, which forced many Asian countries into imposing lockdowns, and growing inflationary pressures.
Reflective of sentiment, holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange fund (ETF), New York’s SPDR Gold Trust dropped to a two-month low on Friday.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1835.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1750.10 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The major support is a long-term retracement zone at $1798.80 to $1770.40. This zone was tested successfully on Monday when the selling pressure stopped at $1795.00.
Inside the long-term retracement zone is a short-term retracement zone at $1792.60 to $1782.50.
The minor range is $1791.00 to $1835.00. Its 50% level or pivot at $1813.00 is being tested into the close.
The main range is $1919.20 to $1750.10. If the main trend changes to up then look for a test of its retracement zone at $1834.70 to $1854.60.
The direction of the August Comex gold market on the opening on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $1813.00.
A sustained move over $1813.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate early upside momentum then look for a move into the resistance cluster at $1834.70 to $1835.00.
Taking out $1835.00 will change the main trend to up and could trigger an acceleration into the pivot at $1854.60.
A sustained move under $1813.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a further break into a series of potential support levels at $1798.80, $1792.60, $1782.50 and $1770.40.
Monday’s price action indicates that despite the downtrend, aggressive counter-trend buyers are willing to come in on weakness.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.