Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trading Just Under $1899.20 – $1951.30 Major Retracement Zone

Gold futures are inching lower on Monday, pressured by firming U.S. Treasury yields, but supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar. Volume is extremely low, which is helping to minimize volatility after whipsaw action last Thursday and Friday.

The below average volume could be a sign that some of the bigger players have already moved to the sidelines ahead of key inflation readings on Thursday that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy going forward. The Fed holds its next two day meeting on June 15 – 16.

At 14:49 GMT, August Comex gold is trading $1895.20, up $3.20 or +0.17%.

On Thursday, June 10, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest CPI and Core CPI reports. Consumer inflation for May is expected to have risen by 0.4%, down from 0.8% in April. Core CPI is expected to have risen by 0.4%, down from 0.9% in April.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1855.60 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out $1919.20 will change the main trend to up.

The major resistance is the long-term retracement zone at $1899.20 to $1951.30.

The minor range is $1854.40 to $1919.20. The market is currently straddling its 50% level at $1886.80.

The short-term range is $1810.70 to $1919.20. Its 50% level at $1865.00 is potential support. Additional support levels come in at $1838.00, $1822.40 and $1799.30.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the August Comex gold futures contract into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1886.80.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1886.80 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the major 50% level at $1899.20. Sense the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this level. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with $1919.20 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1886.80 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $1865.00 then $1855.60.