Gold Price Prediction for March 16, 2018

Gold prices moved lower on Thursday testing support as the dollar gained traction against most major currencies. Yields in the U.S. moved higher versus their counterparts, following a stronger than expected U.S. import price report.

Technicals

Gold prices tested support near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,314.  Resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,324.  Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The trajectory of the MACD histogram is neutral to negative which means prices might bounce at support. The fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal which also points to lower prices.

U.S. Imports Prices Rose

U.S. import prices rose 0.4% in February with export prices up 0.2%. The 1.0% jump in January import prices was revised down to 0.8%, while the 0.8% export price gain was not revised. On a 12-month basis, import prices rose to a 3.5% year over year pace versus 3.4% year over year  while export prices slowed to a 3.3% year over year rate from 3.4% year over year. Petroleum import prices fell 0.5% from the prior 3.0% gain. Excluding petroleum, prices were also 0.5% higher from 0.5% previously. Food, beverage import prices rose 1.1% from 0.8%. Industrial supplies prices, the major culprit behind the January strength, edged up 0.3% after the 2.4% gain. For exports, agricultural prices were up 0.6% from 0.1% (revised from -0.1%). Excluding ag, export prices rose 0.2% from 0.8%. Industrial supplies prices edged up 0.3% from the prior 2.0% surge.

U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell

U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 3.5 points to 22.3 in March following February’s 3.6 point bounce to 25.8. The index was 31.6 a year ago, and over the last 2 years has ranged from 35.5 to -4.2. The employment index edged up to 25.6 from 25.2, with the workweek at 12.8 from 13.7. New orders climbed to 35.7 from 24.5. Prices paid dipped to 42.6 from 45.0, with prices received at 20.7 from 23.9. The 6-month general business index increased to 47.9 from 41.2. The future employment index slid to 37.1 from 40.4, but the workweek rose to 21.8 from 14.7, while new orders declined to 48.8 from 49.1. Prices paid dipped to 62.8 from 65.2 with prices received at 51.3 from 49.5. Capital expenditures were 35.9 from 40.4.