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Gold Price Prediction – Prices Close a Fresh 6-Year Highs

David Becker
Gold Bars and Dollar

Gold prices broke out on Tuesday, as traders came back to work looking for an alternative currency. Geopolitics and safe haven status continue to drive gold prices in conjunction with the dollar. US yields moved lower and the dollar whipsawed following softer than expected ISM manufacturing data which showed that US manufacturing in August contracted for the first time in 3-years. The dollar broke out further and then whipsawed lower following the ISM data which helped buoy gold prices. UK August construction PMI came in lower than expected and Monday’s manufacturing PMI came in below forecasts.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices moved higher closing at a fresh 6-year high on Tuesday.  Short-term resistance is seen near the August intra-day highs at $1,555. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,526. Short term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. This is a sharp change in the fast stochastic, which likely means the change in momentum was unexpected. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a rising trajectory which points to consolidation.


Manufacturing Survey Points to Contraction

The ISM US manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.1 in August, the lowest reading in more than three years. Levels below 50 point to a contraction. Production and employment gauges also showed contraction in August for the first time after growth for almost three years. ISM’s new export orders slowed for the second month in a row to their lowest reading since April 2009. Separately, data from IHS Markit also released Monday showed the US manufacturing PMI slowed to 50.3 in August, its lowest level since September 2009.

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