Gold Price Prediction – Prices Experience Dead Cat Bounce as Momentum Remains Negative
UK Growth was weaker than expected
Gold prices edged lower on Monday, and showed little energy to bounce following a sharp drop on Friday. US yields also remain elevated following a surge on Friday and the dollar consolidated its recent gains. The strong showing in US yields put downward pressure on the greenback, and weaker than expected data in the UK did little to help ease demand for the greenback.
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Technical Analysis
Gold prices eased following a sharp drop on Friday. Prices made a lower low and a lower high but settled near the open which is a sign of indecision. Short term resistance is seen near the 100-day moving average at 1,476, and then the 10-day moving average at 1,487. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the October lows at 1,426. Short term momentum has turned negative. The fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 10, well above the oversold trigger level. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average, crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.
UK Data Falls short
UK Q3 GDP grew 1.0% year over year versus expectations that growth would expand by 1.1%. Investment spending weighed on the headline figure again due to Brexit uncertainty. September industrial production fell -0.3% month over month versus -0.1% expected, while construction output fell -0.2% month over month versus -0.5% expected.
