Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rebound but End Month Down 3.2%

Eurozone CPI misses expectations
David Becker

Gold prices moved higher on Friday, the last trading day of November. For the month the yellow metal declined by 3.2% as riskier assets gained traction. The dollar eased and the Euro moved higher on Friday, paving the way for higher gold prices. The EU reported its preliminary estimate for November CPI which rose more than expected. Germany surprised market participants with a decline in November unemployment queues, which slimmed by 16k.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices moved higher on Friday but declined by more than 3% for November. Support is seen near the November lows at 1,443. A breakdown below this level would lead to a test of the August lows at 1,400. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving at 1,464. Additional resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,485. Short term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current trajectory points to higher prices. Medium-term momentum is about to turn positive a the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is poised to generate a crossover buy signal.

The EU Reports CPI

The EU reported its preliminary estimate for November CPI which climbed more than anticipated. The headline rate increase by 1.0% year-over-year which compares with 0.7% in October and expectations for a 0.9% pace. The core rate rose to 1.3% from 1.1%, which was also more expected. Germany surprised by a decline in November unemployment claims which declined by 16k. Expectations were for an expected a 6k. It was the biggest decline since February but left the unemployment rate steady at 5%. Separately, October retail sales dropped by 1.9%, Expectation were for a 0.2% increase.

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