Gold Prices Rebound but Remain Range-bound

The cooling of trade angst has weighed on gold prices, as risk aversion has abated taking some of the safe-haven bid out of gold. This said, with a U.S. military strike on Syria still a possibility, gold losses should be contained going forward. The dollar remains range bound which is hold gold in a relatively tight range capped by a downward sloping trend line at 1,350. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,338.  Additional support is seen near an upwards sloping trend line near 1,325.  Momentum is positive to neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation.

German March HICP inflation was confirmed

German March HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.5% year over year, up from 1.2% year over year in the previous month. No surprise there and the breakdown confirmed that the pickup in March, which basically reversed the drop in the previous month, was impacted by special factors, namely sharp swings in seasonal food prices over the last couple of months. the long winter, base effects and the earlier timing of Easter this year all played a role. Heating oil prices also picked up again after a dip in the previous month and the annual rate jumped to 5.4% year over year, pretty much matching the January rate, after a -0.2% year over year outlier in February. The underlying picture hasn’t really changed.

Boston Fed’s Rosengren backs at least 3 more rate hikes this year

Boston Fed’s Rosengren backs at least 3 more rate hikes this year and he’s more optimistic than already quite positive FOMC forecasts on the U.S. economy. That said, trade tariffs risk disrupting the U.S. economy in unpredictable ways and fiscal stimulus could leave the economy vulnerable in the next downturn, arguing for increasing policy buffers before then raising rates. Rosengren sees Q1 jobs growth as strong, noting risk of a boom-bust if unemployment drops too far.