Gold, Silver, Copper Daily Forecast: Nonfarm Payrolls to Set Direction Amid Dollar Strength

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Published: Jan 5, 2024, 13:14 GMT+00:00

With gold and copper waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls outcome, the market is poised for potential shifts influenced by labor data and the dollar's movement.

In this article:

Gold

+0.05%

Silver

-0.30%

Copper

+0.73%

Key Insights

Gold Struggles Below Key Levels: Anticipation of U.S. labor data keeps gold subdued, impacting its rebound momentum and rate cut speculations.
Copper Faces Weekly Losses: Copper prices affected by global manufacturing slowdowns and China’s economic uncertainties.
Silver Shows Bearish Trend: Break below pivotal points and weak RSI indicates continued downward movement for silver.
Market Eyes Nonfarm Payrolls Data: Crucial for direction of metals, with expectations of labor market cooling influencing Fed’s rate decisions.
Dollar’s Rise Affects Metals: Stronger dollar impacts gold and copper, setting the stage for a volatile trading session.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Gold prices remained subdued in early European trading on Friday, struggling below key levels after the dollar’s rebound. The focus is now on U.S. labor market data, which could influence interest rate decisions in 2024.

Gold, recovering strongly towards 2023’s end, faltered due to profit-taking and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. Copper also faced potential weekly losses amid global manufacturing slowdowns and China’s economic challenges.

Traders have slightly reduced expectations for early rate cuts, influencing the dollar’s rise and impacting gold and copper prices. Both metals now await further direction from the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls data.

Gold Prices Forecast

Gold – Chart

Gold, as of January 5th, is navigating a challenging market environment, marked by a 0.27% decline to $2,037. The precious metal’s technical outlook indicates a bearish sentiment, particularly underscored by its position below the pivotal $2,049 pivot point and the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,052.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 38, reinforces this bearish inclination, suggesting that gold may not yet have reached oversold conditions, which could signal an impending upward correction. Immediate resistance levels are set at $2,066, $2,079, and $2,088, while support levels lie at $2,031, $2,017, and $1,996.

The observed chart pattern suggests that remaining below the pivot point and the 50 EMA could lead to an extension of the current downward trend. The overall technical forecast for gold remains bearish, particularly if it continues to trade below the $2,052 level.

Silver Prices Forecast

Silver – Chart

Silver, on January 5th, is exhibiting signs of a bearish trend, indicated by a minor decline of 0.10%, positioning it at $22.98. Its technical landscape is shaped by its break below the crucial pivot point of $23.18 and the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $23.58.

This breach signals potential continued weakness, reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35, suggesting bearish momentum as it is below the neutral 50 mark. Key resistance levels are identified at $23.53, $24.01, and $24.49, which if surpassed, could alter the current bearish sentiment. Conversely, support is found at $22.53, $21.99, and $21.58.

The break below the symmetrical triangle pattern, previously supporting at $23.17, now acts as resistance, consolidating the bearish outlook. The overall trend for silver is bearish below the $23.17 level, necessitating close monitoring of these technical indicators for any shifts in market dynamics.

Copper Prices Forecast

Copper – Chart

Copper, on January 5th, is displaying a bearish tendency, having declined by 0.72% to $3.83. This downtrend is substantiated by key technical indicators. The pivot point is set at $3.87, with copper trading below this level, suggesting potential further downward movement.

Immediate resistance levels are positioned at $3.91, $3.97, and $4.02, while support levels are identified at $3.80, $3.76, and $3.71. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32, edging towards the oversold territory, indicates bearish sentiment. Copper’s trading below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $3.88 further confirms the bearish outlook.

The observed pattern of an upward trendline breakout and closing below $3.85 signals a likelihood of continued selling pressure. The overall trend for copper remains bearish, especially if it stays below $3.87, pointing towards a potentially extended decline in price.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.