Bitcoin Dips as Trump Hits the EU with a Tariff Hike
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.23% on Saturday, July 12, partially reversing Friday’s 1.50% gain to close at $116,617. Notably, BTC snapped a four-day winning streak after striking Friday’s all-time high of $118,302.
US trade developments likely weighed on investor sentiment. President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico after declaring a 30% levy on Canada earlier in the week. Higher tariffs may fuel US inflationary pressures, potentially delaying a Fed rate cut. The tariffs take effect on August 1, giving a growing number of trade negotiators several weeks to strike a deal.
Crypto Legislation Fuels US BTC-Spot ETF Demand
The CLARITY Act’s progress on Capitol Hill limited the impact of rising geopolitical tensions from tariffs, boosting demand for BTC-spot ETFs. Bitcoin and the Crypto Market Structure Bill will reportedly be on the floor this coming week, dubbed ‘crypto week.’
Crypto in America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett remarked:
“For those asking about GENIUS – as part of Crypto Week, the House is planning to bring it to a full vote on the floor next week alongside CLARITY and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. If GENIUS passes, it will head to President Trump’s desk. CLARITY and Anti-CBDC will go on to the Senate.”
Progress toward a clear crypto regulatory landscape pushed demand for BTC-spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors, key flows for the week ending July 11 included:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had weekly net inflows of $1,759 million.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $399.9 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows of $339.1 million.
Total net inflows reached $2,717.5 million, the largest since the week ending December 6 and the third biggest since launching in January 2024.
BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT continued to grab the crypto headlines. IBIT ranked #2 on the weekly inflow rankings, while BlackRock’s iShare Ethereum Trust (ETHA) ranked #6, with inflows of $675.14 million.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas remarked on the weekly flows and shared the ranking table, stating:
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Every new Bitcoin analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Bitcoin forecasts“Don’t look now, but ETHA took the 6th spot on the weekly flow leaderboard. Hanging w the big dogs for the first time. $675m in a week is no joke altho still living in btc’s shadow w IBIT grabbing an absurd $1.7b.”
BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers
Several macro and market factors will shape BTC’s near-term outlook:
- Trade developments.
- Legislative updates: the GENIUS, CLARITY, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act votes.
- The upcoming US inflation data and Fed monetary policy guidance.
- US BTC-spot ETF flows.
BTC Price Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, dovish Fed signals, passing of crypto bills, softer US inflation, and ETF inflows may send BTC toward $120,000.
- Bearish Scenario: Rising trade tensions, hawkish Fed chatter, legislative roadblocks, hotter US inflation, or ETF outflows could push BTC toward $100,000.
For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC trades above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), affirming bullish signals.
- Upside Target: A breakout above the July 11 record high of $118,302 could enable the bulls to target $120,000. A sustained move through $120,000 may pave the way to $130,000.
- On the downside, a drop below $110,000 could expose the 50-day EMA, potentially bringing the crucial $100,000 support level into play.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.81 shows BTC sitting in overbought territory (RSI > 70). Selling pressure could intensify at the record high of $118,302.
Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.
Ethereum Soars as ETH-Spot ETFs See Inflow Revival
Turning to Ethereum (ETH), ETH continues to trade above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias.
- Upside target: A breakout above the crucial $3,000 resistance level could bring the $3,287 resistance level into play. A sustained move through $3,287 may pave the way to $3,500.
- On the downside, a break below the $2,815 support level could expose the 50-day and 200-day EMAs.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.90 shows ETH sitting in overbought territory (RSI > 70). Selling pressure could intensify at the July 11 high of $3,038.35.
Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.
