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Gold & Silver Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 27, 2015, 12:43 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold gave up just over $6 to trade at 1063.80 as traders are now set for the FOMC to reduce rates in a few weeks. Silver

Gold & Silver Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast

Gold & Silver Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast
Gold & Silver Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold gave up just over $6 to trade at 1063.80 as traders are now set for the FOMC to reduce rates in a few weeks. Silver fell 108 points to 14.050 following on the heels of gold.  As the Federal Reserve will likely raise the interest rate in December, precious metals prices, which are non-interest bearing, may retreat. This is the primary reason behind the current fall seen in the commodities market as a whole, especially gold.

The data released on November 25 included unemployment claims, which were at a much better number than had been expected. Expectations were 273,000 unemployed, and the actual figure stood at 260,000. This number was also better than the previous figures.

Manufacturing output rose well above economists’ expectations in October, and a gauge of US business investment plans surged. Surprisingly positive order numbers also spurred the markets, giving a push to the US dollar, thus pulling gold down.

Third-quarter gold buying in India, the world’s biggest consumer, is likely to fall to the lowest level in eight years, hurt by poor investment demand and back-to-back droughts that have reduced earnings for millions of farmers.

Gold settled down on pressure from a rebounding dollar after strong U.S. economic data heightened expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month.

But the downside was capped by retail demand emerging on tension between Turkey and Russia. Turkey shot down the Russian jet near the Syrian border on Tuesday, saying the plane had violated its air space, in one of the most serious publicly acknowledged clashes between a NATO member country and Russia for half a century.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

   

United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)

3.7%

4.2%

3.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)

0.1%

0.5%

0.5%

   

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 

2.2%

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

 

9.2

9.4

   

 

gold

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 30, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

-5.7%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)

 

 

-0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

-4.0%

 

 

  NZD

 

ANZ Business Confidence (Nov)

 

 

10.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

-1.9%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Nov)

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Nov)

 

55.0

56.2

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)

 

1.0%

-2.3%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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