Analysis and Recommendations: Gold gained $7.60 in the Asian session and has remained flat for most of the trading day as US investors get ready for the
Gold gained $7.60 in the Asian session and has remained flat for most of the trading day as US investors get ready for the holiday. The Fed continued to push for a rate increase next month. Silver gained 98 points to 14.13 while Platinum moved to 844.55. Gold is showing limited movement, as the metal trades at a spot price of 1068.12 at the start of the North American session. In the US, it’s a quiet start to the week, with the release of Manufacturing PMI and Housing Starts. On Tuesday, there are two key events out of the US – Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence.
Last week’s Fed minutes did not confirm a December rate hike, but most analysts feel that the long-awaited move will indeed occur next month. Market expectations have risen to 66% that the Fed will make a move next month, and recent comments by Fed policymakers have hinted that a rate move is a strong possibility. At the past two policy meetings, the vote against a rate hike was 9-1, but that clearly will not be the outcome at the December meeting. With the US economy showing improvement and employment and consumer indicators pointing upwards, the markets appear prepared for a small hike of 0.25% or 0.50%, and there is a growing view that a modest move would not cause unwanted turbulence on the global markets. One remaining question mark in the rate move puzzle is that of inflation levels. Recent inflation readings have been weak, and the Fed has repeatedly stated that inflation is a key consideration in any decision to raise rates. The markets will get a look at key inflation indicators shortly before the critical Fed policy meeting on December 16.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
||
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
1.8% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
|
||
EUR |
ECB’s Costa Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
EUR |
German Business Expectations (Nov) |
104.7 |
104.0 |
103.8 |
|
||
EUR |
German Current Assessment (Nov) |
113.4 |
112.4 |
112.6 |
|
||
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
109.0 |
108.2 |
108.2 |
|
||
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
2.1% |
1.5% |
|
||
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
||
USD |
Goods Trade Balance (Oct) |
|
-61.80B |
-58.63B |
|
||
USD |
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY) |
|
5.1% |
5.1% |
|
||
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) |
|
99.5 |
97.6 |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, November 25, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
USD |
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock |
|
|
-0.482M |
|
||
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
||
AUD |
Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
-2.1% |
1.6% |
|
||
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
|
45.5K |
44.5K |
|
||
AUD |
RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
|
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
||
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) |
|
1.5% |
-1.2% |
|
||
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
270K |
271K |
|
||
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
||
USD |
Services PMI (Nov) |
|
55.0 |
54.8 |
|
||
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) |
|
93.1 |
93.1 |
|
||
USD |
New Home Sales (Oct) |
|
500K |
468K |
|
||
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
|
0.252M |
|
||
USD |
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count |
|
|
564 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov
Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL
Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note
Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond
Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei
Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund
Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN
Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note
Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange
Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange
Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs
Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec
Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions
Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction