Introduction: Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to run towards gold.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold recovered on Friday climbing close to $11.00 after tumbling also over $30.00 earlier in the week. Risk on and risk off sentiment was all the rage in the market this week, all tied to the US negotations. After this week’s break in gold prices, the yellow metal is holding on to meager yearly gains as it is about to enter the last few trading days of 2012, and for the short term market watchers are keeping an eye on Thursday’s low.
Next week will feature light trade. Some markets are closed on Monday in Europe for Christmas Eve; Japan has a holiday on Monday, too. Most markets are closed on Tuesday for Christmas and some markets, including those in Canada, the U.K. and Australia, are closed Wednesday for Boxing Day.
In the U.S., the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange will see regular day-session trade on Monday, but electronic trade closes early; markets are closed on Tuesday. Regular trade resumes on Wednesday.
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Dec 21, 2012 |
1657.75 |
1648.95 |
1660.45 |
1636.45 |
0.52% |
Dec 20, 2012 |
1649.25 |
1668.45 |
1672.75 |
1636.65 |
-1.16% |
Dec 19, 2012 |
1668.55 |
1677.35 |
1677.85 |
1664.45 |
-0.53% |
Dec 18, 2012 |
1677.45 |
1698.45 |
1704.35 |
1662.35 |
-1.23% |
Dec 17, 2012 |
1698.35 |
1696.45 |
1700.45 |
1687.75 |
0.11% |
With the fiscal cliff talks, people are taking advantage of (current) capital gains (tax rates) and taking profits ahead of the end of the year. The fiscal cliff is the combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that will occur next year, unless Congress acts to prevent it. Some of the discussion surrounding the fiscal cliff and how to avoid it centers on raising capital gains taxes.
I would like to take this time to express my best wishes to all of my readers during this holiday season and extend the best hopes for profitable trading in 2013.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of December 17-21 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 17 |
00:01 |
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) |
-3.3% |
-2.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
-8.1 |
-1.0 |
-5.2 |
|
14:00 |
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions |
1.3B |
25.0B |
3.2B |
Dec. 18 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.7% |
2.6% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
CPI (YoY) |
2.7% |
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
-0.3% |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Current Account |
-107.5B |
-103.4B |
-118.1B |
Dec. 19 |
09:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
102.4 |
102.0 |
101.4 |
|
09:00 |
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
107.1 |
108.0 |
108.1 |
|
09:00 |
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
97.9 |
96.3 |
95.2 |
|
11:00 |
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
19 |
25 |
33 |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.899M |
0.875M |
0.868M |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.861M |
0.873M |
0.888M |
Dec. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
-0.7% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.9% |
1.5% |
0.8% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
361K |
357K |
344K |
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
3.1% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3225K |
3199K |
3213K |
|
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
5.04M |
4.87M |
4.76M |
|
15:00 |
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
8.1 |
-3.0 |
-10.7 |
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.6 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Business Investment (QoQ) |
3.8% |
3.5% |
3.7% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Current Account |
-12.8B |
-14.0B |
-17.4B |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
09:30 |
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.6% |
-0.2% |
1.9% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
72.9 |
74.7 |
74.5 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011
Average: 1457.33 over this period
Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 28 |
07:45 |
EUR |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
0.2% |