Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 – 7, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: Gold closed the week at 1716.55 down from the high of the week at 1754.65. Gold held in a tight range in the early

Gold Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 3 - 7, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold closed the week at 1716.55 down from the high of the week at 1754.65. Gold held in a tight range in the early part of the week, when technical selling kicked in on Wednesday and markets saw several million ounces of gold unloading in just minutes. Gold tumbled from 1744.45 the morning open to hit a low of 1708.35. Over the next few days gold clawed its way back as traders took advantage of the price drop to grab up gold at what is thought to be cheap prices, with the US dollar wavering mid week.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Nov 30, 2012	1716.55	1728.05	1733.65	1710.45	-0.66%
Nov 29, 2012	1727.95	1724.45	1730.65	1720.15	0.19%
Nov 28, 2012	1724.65	1744.45	1745.55	1708.35	-1.13%
Nov 27, 2012	1744.35	1752.05	1754.15	1742.95	-0.43%
Nov 26, 2012	1751.95	1752.95	1754.65	1748.35	-0.05%

Tensions over fiscal cliff which is seen escalating day by day pushed the gold prices down for the week. Adding to it was acceptance of second round of installment for Greece bailout by Eurozone which reduced the safe haven appeal for gold and dragged the prices down. Gold fell the most in the month during last week major reason was the deflation fear related to US fiscal cliff and worries about implementation of the Greece debt fund reduced the risk appetite of investors Until any common decision is being made republicans and democrats in US Gold can be still seen higher as the safe haven appeal for gold can be seen escalating in near term. Expect gold prices to move higher this week as worries about fiscal cliff and Nonfarm payroll numbers this week can show some sign of improvement in US leading a decision on the upcoming crisis

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Major Economic Events for the week of November 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 26	CHF	Employment Level	4.12M	4.09M	4.07M
	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	6.2	6.1
Nov. 27	GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	3.7%	1.3%	0.9%
	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%
	GBP	GDP (YoY)	-0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.5%	-0.5%	1.7%
	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.0%	-0.6%	9.2%
	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	73.7	73.0	73.1
Nov. 28	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	USD	New Home Sales	368K	390K	369K
Nov. 29	CHF	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.2%	-0.1%
	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.6%
	EUR	German Unemployment Change	5K	15K	19K
	EUR	Italian 10-Year BTP Auction	4.45%		4.92%
	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	33	18	30
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	393K	390K	416K
	USD	GDP (QoQ)	2.7%	2.8%	2.0%
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3287K	3323K	3357K
	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	5.2%	0.8%	0.4%
Nov. 30	EUR	French Consumer Spending (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.1%
	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.50	1.60	1.64
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.4%	2.5%
	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	-0.2%	0.2%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1921.05 on Sep 06, 2011

Average: 1457.33 over this period

Lowest: 1044.85 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 03	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	4.1%	5.4%
	08:30	CHF	SVME PMI	47.0	46.1
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.3	51.7
Dec. 05	10:00	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.2%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	125K	158K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.7%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.9%	-0.1%
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.2
Dec. 06	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.8B	-8.4B
	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.9%	-3.3%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Dec. 07	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.7%	-1.7%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.2%	0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-0.6%	-2.6%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	-1.8%