Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: $3,998 Tests Trendline – Recovers 20-Day Support

Tuesday’s Reversal

Gold opened under pressure Tuesday, dropping sharply to $3,998 and temporarily breaching the converged 10-day and 20-day averages alongside the short-term uptrend line. Aggressive buying quickly reversed the move, recapturing the 20-day average and trendline while lifting price to a $4,082 session high—now probing the fallen 10-day average as resistance near the top of the range.

61.8% Retracement Finished

The decline from the $4,245 lower swing high from last week delivered a textbook 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, aligned with an uptrend line. Today’s rapid recovery of all key dynamic levels indicates the minor pullback has likely exhausted itself, with the uptrend line freshly validated as the primary bull-market defense.

Bullish Confirmation Level

After today’s session, a sustained advance and close above today’s $4,082 high is required to officially confirm a bullish reversal and declare the correction finished. Without that follow-through, risk remains of another leg lower to retest the trendline or deeper supports, or a consolidation phase.

Deeper Support Cluster

A decisive close below the uptrend line shifts attention to the rising 50-day average at $3,955, closely aligned with the 78.6% retracement at $3,963. The 50-day carries significant weight, having gone untested as support since its August reclaim—making the first approach a high-probability bounce zone, if it reached.

Trendline Reliability

Isolated trendline breaks often prove false without accompanying confirmation. Even if the line is violated, holding the 50-day would keep the larger uptrend intact and it is not much lower. True bearish conviction requires a drop below the interim higher swing low at $3,929.

Weekly Inside Week Setup

The weekly chart remains on track for an inside week, with the 10-week average at $3,987 supplying additional dynamic backing. Last week’s $3,997 low sits comfortably above the daily $3,929 swing low—meaning any weekly close beneath $3,929 would deliver a strong bearish one-week reversal.

Outlook

Gold’s aggressive defense of the uptrend line and recapture of the 20-day average strongly favors buyers. A convincing push above $4,082 targets fresh record territory; failure invites a deeper test of the 50-day confluence near $3,955. Until a weekly close below $3,929 emerges, all pullbacks remain buyable within the structural bull market.

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