Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Rally Pauses, Weekly Breakout Still on Track

Gold Pauses After Record Highs

Gold experienced a minor pullback on Thursday, dropping to $3,511, just below Wednesday’s low, before rebounding into the upper half of the session’s range. The decline approached the prior trend high of $3,500, testing it as support. Buyers stepped in near that level, suggesting the former resistance is beginning to act as a floor. If further weakness emerges before fresh highs are reached, the $3,500 zone will be the first key support to monitor.

Breakout Targets Already in Play

The pullback followed Wednesday’s surge to a new record high of $3,578, which completed the initial target of a rising ABCD pattern within the recently broken symmetrical triangle consolidation. That breakout was further supported by a nearby long-term 223.6% Fibonacci extension at $3,563. Confirmation came last week when gold closed above the July 21 swing high, which had helped define the upper boundary of the triangle. With only one trading day left in the week, gold looks poised to confirm a fresh weekly breakout with a close above $3,500.

Weekly and Monthly Trend Confirmation

The significance of this week’s move extends beyond the daily chart. A higher weekly low has been established, reinforcing underlying strength and creating another short-term support level. Combined with last month’s record monthly close, these developments confirm that buyers remain firmly in control of the long-term trend. If gold closes the week above $3,500, it will mark another milestone, solidifying the bull case.

Higher Objectives and Near-Term Hurdles

Looking ahead, measured move projections point to upside targets of $3,779 and $3,966, based on both the triangle breakout and the sharp advance preceding it. In the near term, however, a Fibonacci confluence zone around $3,662 will need to be surpassed before momentum can carry prices higher. While all patterns carry the risk of failure, the combination of daily, weekly, and monthly breakout signals suggests demand remains strong, and buyers are likely to stay in control following periods of consolidation.

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