Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Reaches $3,895 Before Pullback, Shooting Star Forms

Intraday High Meets Resistance

Gold’s rally extended further on Wednesday, achieving a new record high of $3,895. That advance completed an important upside target but was quickly met by selling pressure. Prices retreated toward the day’s lows, setting up a possible bearish shooting star candlestick pattern if the session closes weak. This reaction highlights the market’s sensitivity to established resistance, with sellers stepping in as the next milestone was reached.

Breakout Validated, but Sellers Push Back

Earlier in the week, gold confirmed bullish sentiment with a breakout above a well-defined resistance confluence zone, including the top boundary of a rising channel. Wednesday’s new high also completed a 261.8% Fibonacci projection for a large rising ABCD pattern that has unfolded since the 2018 swing lows. However, the sharp rejection as gold neared $3,896 suggests the market’s memory remains intact, with sellers defending the level aggressively.

Comparing Current and Prior Advances

From the August 18 swing low to this week’s peak, gold has gained $584, or 17.7%. That move compares to prior recent upswings of $918 (35.5%) and $502 (22.0%) during the broader bull cycle. The historical comparison implies there could be more upside potential in the current advance. While percentage gains have moderated relative to earlier phases, the current rally still aligns with the pattern of sustained bullish legs. Short-term, however, today’s pullback signals the risk of consolidation before another attempt higher.

Watching Key Support Levels

Support remains anchored around the 10-Day moving average, currently near $3,764. This level has consistently provided dynamic support since gold reclaimed several moving averages on August 22, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. A retest of this area would not necessarily damage the broader bullish structure but could serve as a healthy reset after the rapid advance.

Outlook for Higher Targets

Despite the emergence of resistance at $3,895, the broader trend remains constructive. A decisive close above Wednesday’s high could trigger continuation toward the next resistance zone between $3,969 and $4,000. Until then, traders should be alert to short-term reversal signals but recognize that the larger technical framework continues to favor buyers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.