Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: $3310.48 Pivot Holds the Key as Dollar and Yields Weigh

Gold prices ease after two-week high as dollar firms and Treasury yields rise

Gold prices are slipping on Thursday after touching a two-week high earlier in the session, pressured by a rebound in the U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. Spot gold briefly rallied to $3345.47 but was unable to sustain the move, retreating toward a key pivot at $3310.48.

The failure to attract follow-through buying signals a pause in the three-day rally, with traders now eyeing technical and macroeconomic signals for the next direction.

At 12:30 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3310.77, down $4.47 or -0.13%.

Dollar Strength and Treasury Yields Weigh on Bullion

Gold’s dip comes as the U.S. Dollar Index edged 0.2% higher, making dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. At the same time, Treasury yields extended their climb. The 30-year yield surged 5 basis points to 5.14%, its highest level since October 2023, while the 10-year rose to 4.62%. The 2-year yield edged lower to 4.01%.

Rising yields typically hurt gold as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Wednesday’s weak $16 billion auction of 20-year Treasury bonds added to concerns about demand for U.S. debt, reinforcing upward pressure on yields. Traders are increasingly pricing in a debt-driven supply glut, particularly in light of recent fiscal developments.

Gold Holds Ground Above $3,300 as U.S. Fiscal Concerns Linger

Despite profit-taking and the dollar’s recovery, gold remains supported by deepening investor anxiety over the U.S. fiscal outlook. Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating last week, citing unsustainable debt levels, now above $36 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that President Trump’s proposed tax-and-spending bill could add nearly $4 trillion to the deficit.

The bill, which cleared the House early Thursday, features large tax cuts and expanded military spending. Investors fear this will flood the bond market with new issuance, pushing yields higher and weakening the long-term appeal of U.S. debt. Safe-haven demand for gold typically increases under such fiscal stress.

What’s Next for Gold Prices? Watch the $3310 Pivot and U.S. Data

Gold is now consolidating around the $3310.48 pivot. Holding above this level may open the door for a renewed push toward resistance levels at $3435.06 and $3500.20. On the downside, failure to hold could see prices test $3277.91 and $3228.80, with stronger support at the 50-day moving average near $3192.40.

With Treasury yields pushing higher and political tensions over the deficit mounting, the bullish bias remains intact — but fragile. A stronger dollar and hawkish bond signals are capping the upside. Traders should monitor today’s U.S. jobless claims and home sales data for added clarity.

Gold prices forecast: Cautiously bullish, but facing near-term resistance