Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Price Rebounds, but 50-Day MA Still Capping Gold Rally

Fed Minutes and Jackson Hole Loom Over Gold Prices Forecast

Gold is rebounding sharply on Wednesday after an early dip tested the major pivot level at $3310.48. Buyers stepped in just above that line at $3311.56, turning the market higher in intraday trade. The rally places gold in position to test the 50-day moving average at $3348.90—a level that now serves as a key resistance and trend signal.

Above the 50-day MA, additional resistance stands at $3353.58. Clearing these levels would mark a significant technical shift and could trigger further upside toward the minor top at $3374.81 and the main top at $3409.43. Conversely, failure to regain the 50-day MA could keep gold rangebound or spark another decline back to $3310.48. A break below that level would expose the market to deeper selling pressure toward $3268.12 and $3244.41.

At 13:22 GMT, XAU/USD is currently trading $3340.63, up $24.93 or +0.75%.

Dollar Steady as Traders Position Ahead of Fed Signals

The U.S. dollar index was flat after earlier touching a one-week high, continuing to pressure gold’s upside in recent sessions. Still, market attention is squarely on the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole. With the Fed’s September rate decision looming, traders are watching for signs of a dovish shift.

Market pricing reflects roughly an 83–85% probability of a quarter-point cut next month. Some analysts, however, caution that Powell could lean hawkish, especially after last week’s firm producer price data. Inflation pressures—despite soft jobs and CPI prints—remain a key concern for the Fed, and Powell has previously signaled reluctance to ease policy too aggressively.

Fed Dissent and Stable Yields Keep Traders on Alert

Treasury yields were little changed across the curve on Wednesday, with the 10-year at 4.30% and the 2-year at 3.744%. The July FOMC minutes revealed rare internal disagreement, as two Fed governors dissented from the decision to hold rates steady. This internal pushback may hint at a more divided Fed than previously assumed, which could influence Powell’s tone at Jackson Hole.

Geopolitical Risks Offer Secondary Support for Gold

Geopolitical developments also remain on traders’ radars. While President Trump ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine, he suggested U.S. air support could be on the table—a move that raises the geopolitical risk premium. Gold often benefits from such uncertainty, especially as global headlines shift quickly.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish If 50-Day Resistance Breaks

Gold is currently testing the 50-day moving average at $3348.90, which has acted as firm resistance. A clear break and close above this level, followed by confirmation through $3353.58, would signal renewed bullish momentum and open a path toward $3374.81 and $3409.43.

With the Jackson Hole symposium and Powell’s remarks expected to steer market sentiment, a dovish tilt could serve as the catalyst gold needs.

Until then, the 50-day MA remains the barrier to watch. If gold fails to break through, a pullback to $3310.48 remains likely, with deeper risk toward $3268.12 and $3244.41. For now, the outlook holds a cautiously bullish bias—if and only if the 50-day MA is reclaimed.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.