Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $3,352 and $38.30 Resist Breakouts Pre-FOMC

Market Overview

During Wednesday’s Asian session, both gold and silver steadied in narrow ranges, as investors held back from central positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.

Market sentiment remains fragile, with traders awaiting clarity on the central bank’s next steps amid a mixed U.S. economic backdrop and evolving inflation risks.

Precious Metals Anchored by Fed Uncertainty and USD Weakness

Gold’s muted behavior reflects a market caught between diverging forces. Modest safe-haven flows, triggered by global growth concerns and geopolitical unease, are offering support.

Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar’s pullback, following a strong July, has marginally eased pressure on the non-yielding asset. However, the overarching narrative remains one of caution.

Silver mirrored gold’s tone, drifting sideways as traders weighed prospects for Fed policy shifts.

The metal, often more sensitive to industrial demand, is also responding to broader market signals, including marginally softer U.S. yields and subdued risk appetite.

FOMC Decision Looms as Market Prices in Policy Hold

According to CME FedWatch Tool projections, markets assign a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady. However, attention is firmly on the language of the policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Traders are primarily focused on any forward guidance suggesting a potential shift toward easing by September.

Despite recent signs of economic cooling, such as Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed job openings fell to 7.43 million from 7.71 million in May, the Fed may still strike a hawkish tone. Persistent inflation concerns, partially fueled by rising tariffs and sticky service prices, leave room for caution.

Macroeconomic Divergence Raises Policy Ambiguity

The labor market’s softening stands in contrast to consumer resilience. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July, its highest since January, suggesting optimism around employment and spending power.

This conflicting data leaves policymakers in a delicate position, balancing inflation risks with growth moderation.

Upcoming economic reports, including Thursday’s PCE inflation data and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, could reshape expectations. For now, gold and silver continue to act as barometers of market anxiety, trading sideways as investors await signals that could define the Fed’s trajectory into the fall.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating between $3,307 and $3,352, while silver fluctuates within $37.91 to $38.30.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering around $3,327 in a tight range beneath its 50-EMA ($3,338) and 100-EMA ($3,347), both acting as nearby resistance. Price action shows mild recovery from last week’s drop but lacks momentum, staying capped below the $3,334 barrier.

The trend remains fragile, with structure favoring sellers unless gold reclaims $3,352 and sustains above the EMAs. Key support sits at $3,307, followed by $3,283.

The ascending trendline offers interim backing, but a breakdown could shift focus to $3,262. A decisive break on either side of the $3,307–$3,352 band will likely define the next move.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) remains under pressure near $38.08, caught in a tight range beneath both the 50-EMA ($38.35) and 100-EMA ($38.38), which are flattening out, suggesting a stall in momentum.

Price action has formed a sideways consolidation box just above ascending trendline support around $37.91. If buyers fail to defend this zone, the next targets lie at $37.60 and $37.23.

On the upside, resistance at $38.30 must be cleared to shift sentiment. Until then, the structure favors range-bound behavior.