Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $4,566 Slips as Silver Breaks $73 Channel Support

Market Overview

Central banks are continuing to be net buyers of gold in 2026 , despite the fact that some of them did sell off a bit on liquidity issues. Poland kicked off the year with a big purchase – over 20 tonnes – and other emerging markets like Uzbekistan and China are still working on diversifying their portfolios.

The first quarter of the year saw big official buying, to the tune of over 863 tonnes – which was a nice chunk of change on top of what they bought in 2025. Of course all this buying has some stuff going on in the background – like geopolitical tensions and energy disruptions – that are giving the gold market a bit of a boost. That being said, the problem of near-term inflation from high oil prices is still hanging over things and dampening the mood a bit.

At the same time, the silver market has just gone through its sixth year in a row where it ended up in the red – with a deficit of around 46.3 million ounces this time around – that’s 15% bigger than 2025’s deficit. And if you look at the overall picture since 2021, the total amount of silver that’s been drawn down from the stockpiles is a whoppng 762 million ounces.

As for how much new silver is coming out of the ground, it’s looking like we’ll see a tiny drop of 0.3% to around 844.1 million ounces this year. But even so, the overall demand for silver – drive largely by industry, which accounts for more than 55% of the usage – is actually easing off a bit due to thrifting in the solar panel sector, although gains in electronics, EVs and investment in bars and coins are helping to make up for that.

The end result is that the market for silver is still looking pretty tight, and the steady official demand for gold is giving that market some stability, despite all the craziness going on in the big picture.

Gold Price at $4,566 – Testing $4,536 Support Zone

Gold is hovering at $4,566 – a price it cant seem to hold above, and its dropped back after failing to climb higher than the 0.5 Fibonacci line at $4,670. A glance at the candlesticks and you can see theyre consistently closing in the red with long upper wicks, showing there are people trying to sell at higher prices but its just not happening. RSI is sitting at 44 – low enough to worry but not low enough to tell us its over yet. Gold has a support line at $4,536 (Fib 0.382), then deeper at $4,370.

Moving averages arent doing much of anything, so for the moment price is just drifting along. If Gold breaks below 4,536 then expect to see losses head down toward 4,370. But – if it manages to climb back up above 4,670, then 4,804 (Fib 0.618) might just be in the sights.

Trade idea – Sell when gold goes below 4,536, and set your stop at 4,670.

Silver Price at $72.66 – Channel Breakdown Signals Weakness

Silver is perched at $72.66, but its dropped after breaking out of its ascending channel – & the story told by the candlesticks is one of its terminal bearish closes and lower highs. Theres a confirmation that the price is heading down, too. RSI is at 39 – not super bad, but not great either. Resistance is still sitting high at $73.92, while on the other hand support is at $69.85.

Moving averages arent looking too hot, either – theyve got a downward slope, and that just adds to the weakness. If silver drops below 72.00 then it looks like we’re headed down toward 69.85. But – if it manages to lift back above 74.00 then price might just start to calm down again.

Trade idea – Sell when silver breaks through 72.00 and put your stop up at 74.00.