Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Breakout or Breakdown? Key Chart Patterns to Watch Now

Market Overview

Gold prices dipped to approximately $3,277 per ounce on Thursday, pressured by cautious signals from the Federal Reserve. The May policy meeting minutes revealed officials opted to hold rates steady amid rising risks of stagflation, citing persistent inflation and softening growth and employment.

This decision, combined with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, weighed on the price of the yellow metal.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 4.5 basis points to 4.493%, while the Dollar Index (DXY) advanced 0.33% to 99.89, buoyed by robust consumer confidence data from the Conference Board, which marked the highest level in four years. “Investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach as the Fed weighs stagflation risks,” noted a senior analyst.

Silver Resilient Amid Mixed Market Forces

In contrast, silver prices edged higher to around $33.22 per ounce. The metal found support from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, though its gains were capped by the same factors that pressured gold—rising yields and a firm dollar. Price action reflected modest support but lacked the momentum for a significant breakout.

Long-Term Outlook Remains Constructive for Precious Metals

Despite recent price weakness, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. Geopolitical risks continue to underpin demand for safe havens, while central banks and major importers are increasing their purchases.

Swiss customs data showed U.S. gold imports into Switzerland in April surged to the highest levels since at least 2012. Meanwhile, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled month-on-month, marking the highest since March 2024.

Focus Shifts to U.S. Economic Data

Markets now await key U.S. data releases, including the second estimate of Q1 GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. These data points could influence the monetary policy outlook, with money markets pricing in roughly 45 basis points of easing by year-end.

Gold and silver are navigating a complex macroeconomic landscape, balancing near-term headwinds from stronger yields and a firmer dollar against underlying support from geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold prices are testing $3,277 after a breakdown of the channel, with price action consolidating near the 200-EMA at $3,286.50. The recent decline from $3,366 coincided with a rejection at channel resistance, suggesting a potential bearish continuation.

The 50-EMA ($3,302) is providing short-term resistance, while support levels at $3,247 and $3,205 are now critical. A deeper move below $3,247 could signal a breakdown toward $3,172 or $3,140.

Conversely, a bullish reversal above $3,303, confirmed by a close above the 50-EMA, would challenge the downtrend and target $3,325–$3,366. (edited)

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is consolidating near $33.20, supported by the 50-day EMA ($33.17) and 200-day EMA ($32.92), which provide a solid technical base. Price action bounced off $32.88, confirming the support of a rising trendline; however, resistance at $33.57 and $33.93 capped recent upward momentum.

The market is showing indecision, with several Doji and small-bodied candles around $33.20, reflecting a potential battle between buyers and sellers. A firm close above $33.57 could trigger a run to $34.26.

On the downside, a break below $32.88 might signal a deeper pullback toward $32.60 or even $32.34. The technical outlook remains neutral to bullish, with key levels to watch.